Seniormost Druze cleric Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri finds himself in an increasingly precarious position, both vis-à-vis Damascus and within Suwayda itself. Following raids by the Hijri-affiliated National Guard against a presumed plot and two subsequent deaths in detention likely caused by torture, al-Hijri’s political survival is increasingly uncertain. One check on this could be continued Israeli support, although al-Hijri may have to demonstrate greater flexibility moving forward to secure this support in the long-term. Despite the increasingly complex anti-Hijri organizing on the ground, Suwayda’s ceasefire remains imperfect but stable—buoyed by the interim government’s desire not to launch any significant operation into Suwayda and the continued buy-in of international powers.
Attempted Destabilization in Suwayda
In late November, units from the National Guard launched a security operation in several areas of Suwayda city targeting cells allegedly involved in a plot to challenge al-Hijri’s authority. The raid ultimately resulted in the arrest of Raed al-Matni and Maher Falhout as well as several others. Although the National Guard released one detainee after it was established he was not involved in the alleged plot, the Druze-led force handed over the bodies of Raed al-Matni and Maher Falhout to the morgue at Suwayda’s National Hospital days later. The explanations given by the National Guard were spurious, especially after images circulated online appearing to show al-Matni’s body bearing signs of torture. The National Guard meanwhile claimed al-Matni died of an overdose from medication prescribed for a pre-existing heart condition, while Falhout purportedly died of a sudden cardiac arrest.
Although al-Matni and Falhout were buried without protests, the al-Matni family later issued a statement condemning the Military Operations Room and National Guard, rejecting the charges against him and calling for an independent investigation into his death. The day before, the Higher Legal Committee—which is closely affiliated with Sheikh al-Hijri and his efforts to establish Druze-led bodies within Suwayda independent of Damascus—ordered formation of a committee to investigate the security raids of late November, whose results will reportedly be made public at a later date. Despite the security raids, arrests and interrogations over the past week, the National Guard remains on high alert.
Ceasefire Updates
Since the intense military clashes and massacres that claimed over 1,000 lives across Suwayda in July, a relative but uneasy calm continues to largely hold in south Syria. As with previous reporting periods, outbursts of violence, while relatively frequent, remain mostly isolated to a few areas and often center on highly localized conflicts.
