Mounting tensions between interim authorities and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led to heavy military clashes in Aleppo mid-January. The situation in eastern Aleppo province at Deir Hafer and Tishreen Dam remains on the brink with the buildup of interim government and SDF fighters along this frontline. The two mitigating factors for continued fighting in eastern Aleppo province are US mediation (and its ability to encourage the SDF to return to negotiations with Damascus) or military developments on the ground (and whether the SDF’s forces west of the Euphrates can stave-off pro-government advances).
Although Deir Hafer is an important foothold inside Aleppo province for the SDF, its forces are currently outnumbered. If the SDF opts to fight rather than return to negotiations, the interim administration will likely aim to destabilize SDF control behind contact lines. In either case, the prospects for continued SDF control of north-east Syria in its current form are diminishing.
Background: October 2025-January 2026
The last significant bout of clashes between interim government forces and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) broke out in October of last year. A hastily brokered, US-mediated ceasefire followed, granting a temporary reprieve to both parties and dispelling pressure for an immediate solution to the broader question around north-east Syria and SDF integration into interim government institutions. However, subsequent attempts at local-level mediation failed to resolve the over-arching tensions between the two sides, with Kurdish areas inside Aleppo city indelibly linked to the broader stand-off vis-à-vis the north-east.
Military tensions rose in south-east rural Aleppo in December, making a broader military escalation more likely, when interim government forces fired on an SDF troop rotation, killing one fighter. Subsequent talks between the SDF/Self Administration and interim officials in early January, regarding the SDF’s integration into state institutions, yielded no agreements beyond a commitment to hold further talks in the future. During this period, local Kurdish-led authorities and residents complained that interim authorities imposed blockade-like conditions on the quasi-enclave of Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo city. The final incident that provided the spark for renewed hostilities occurred when a Ministry of Defense soldier shot down an SDF reconnaissance drone; the SDF retaliated by deploying drones to Deir Hafer that killed a government soldier.
Clashes in Sheikh Maqsoud, Al-Ashrafiyeh, and Bani Zaid: 6-10 January
From the outset of clashes on 6 January, both sides exchanged barrages of artillery, rockets and drones. Interim authorities designated the three Kurdish areas inside Aleppo city as “closed military zones” on the 7th before announcing the beginning of a small-scale military operation in Aleppo the following day. After this point, state security forces launched the first of repeated ground incursions into Sheikh Maqsoud and Al-Ashrafiyeh.
Much of the fighting between interim government forces and the SDF was done at a distance: both sides made ready use of artillery, rockets and mortars as well as snipers and 23mm machine-guns—but also drones. Both sides targeted civilian areas indiscriminately; SDF shelling into Aleppo city injured civilians in areas including University City and Khaldiyeh.
The areas of Sheikh Maqsoud, Al-Ashrafiyeh and Bani Zaid are densely populated, with a pre-war population over 100,000 bolstered throughout the conflict by mostly Kurdish IDPs, fleeing Afrin and other contested areas of the northwestern and northern countryside, taking shelter there. With interim government forces using indiscriminate weaponry against these civilian areas, displacement was massive—local estimates suggested more than 140,000 people sought shelter elsewhere, with many fleeing through two “humanitarian crossings” announced by the government on the 7th.
Early Friday, 9th January, interim authorities announced a ceasefire that came into effect at 3am local time. Under the terms of the ceasefire, Kurdish fighters would evacuate three contested districts—Sheikh Maqsoud, Al-Ashrafiyeh and Bani Zaid—bound for the SDF-controlled north-east. Evacuating fighters would be permitted to leave with personal light arms. In step with the ceasefire announcement, Aleppo’s Internal Security branch instated curfews in several neighborhoods of Aleppo city (Al-Ashrafiyeh, Bani Zaid, Al-Hullok, Al-Maidan, Sheikh Maqsoud and Al-Siryan) “until further notice.”
Evacuations of SDF fighters, Asayish security personnel and civilians from the Kurdish-majority Aleppo districts of Al-Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud were completed on Sunday. That same day, Aleppo governor Azzam al-Gharib announced the areas were “empty of SDF fighters,” while SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said that his group had “reached an understanding” with Damascus for the “evacuation of the dead, the wounded, the stranded civilians and the fighters” from Al-Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud. Far from being a first-step towards broader de-escalation between the interim government and SDF, this agreement, as expected, set the stage for further hostilities elsewhere.
Military Developments in Eastern Aleppo Province: 10-15 January
Even as its fighters were in the process of evacuating from Aleppo, the SDF sought to emphasize its ability to reach the city center. On the 10th, an SDF suicide drone targeted the Aleppo Governorate building in central Aleppo’s Jamiliyeh district shortly after Aleppo governor al-Gharib, Information Minister Hamza al-Mustafa and Social Affairs and Labour Minister Hind Qawabat completed a press conference there.
By the 14th, interim authorities designated the areas of Deir Hafer and Maskana in eastern Aleppo province—both west of the Euphrates—as “closed military zones”. Pro-government forces intensified shelling on the Tishreen Dam front coinciding with the start of military operations in Deir Hafer, bombarding the villages of Sheikh Mahshi, Hajj Hussein and surrounding areas. The main axes of attack are meanwhile focused on Kuweires, Deir Hafer and scattered villages in the region such as Hamaimeh.
The same day, interim Ministry of Defense officials announced opening of a “humanitarian corridor” following the M15 highway from Maskana in the east, via Deir Hafer, to the eastern Aleppo village of Hamaimeh in the west. This corridor was open to civilians fleeing to government-controlled eastern rural Aleppo between 9am and 5pm local time.
As of 20:00 Syria time on the 15th, SDF forces have begun to seize most of the northern neighborhoods of Deir Hafer. The humanitarian corridor to government-controlled areas is closed; while an unknown number of families fled through this roadway during the day, there is a possibility that the deadline will be extended for more civilians to flee. Ministry of Defense units conducted several simultaneous drone strikes on SDF positions near the Tishreen Dam on Thursday evening.
The government’s immediate objective appears to be eliminating any SDF presence inside Aleppo province and limiting the SDF’s reach inside Aleppo (evidenced by the drone strike on central Aleppo last week). The SDF, meanwhile, hopes that if it can thwart the government’s attack in eastern Aleppo then it will be able to impose conditions during future negotiations on the fate of the north-east. At the time of writing, US mediation efforts may still be able to deter a large-scale offensive in the short run; however, the interim government and its international backers ultimately want to see the north-east integrated into Syria proper.
