After a kidnapping incident prompted fierce clashes between Bedouin groups and Druze factions in western Suwayda, the interim Ministry of Defense deployed more than 12,000 troops in an apparent bid to enter Suwayda and finally move in on anti-government Druze factions there. As early as yesterday morning, the scale and nature of Ministry of Defense reinforcements sent to bolster Bedouin armed groups operating in western Suwayda indicated that interim authorities intended to exact significant concessions from Druze factions, if not all-out surrender.
The deployment of foreign fighters has raised concerns about the current trajectory of the fighting and the risk of further human rights violations against Druze civilians, with reports mounting of field executions, extra-judicial killings and punitive, sectarianized kidnappings. These deployments have replicated the kind of abuses seen on Syria’s coast in March this year, albeit on a smaller scale, with concerns raised about impunity and violations against civilians. Although interim authorities may later claim that a number of undisciplined individuals perpetrated abuses in Suwayda, the dubious circumstances behind the outbreak of clashes, the deployment of malign actors and lack of command-chain control only increased the likelihood of widespread abuses against civilians. In effect, interim authorities are repeating the same behaviors and decisions that allowed the March massacres on the coast to happen. These are all the result of decisions taken by Damascus.
Although Israel’s involvement to purportedly “protect” Druze-majority Suwayda is undoubtedly exacerbating retributive violence against civilians by forces affiliated with interim authorities, this violence is essentially a result of the lack of any semblance of accountability for abuses perpetrated since the fall of Assad. Further developments are expected in the coming hours and days.
Background
A wave of kidnappings targeting Druze civilians by Bedouin armed groups from eastern Daraa and Al-Lajat prompted armed clashes with Druze factions from the western Suwayda countryside. Tit-for-tat kidnappings either side of the two southern provinces’ provincial borders have been common throughout the post-2011 conflict.
As interim authorities have integrated Bedouin armed groups that have a long history of cyclic violence with Druze border communities into the security forces—as well as involvement in kidnapping and smuggling–it has been expected for some time that interim authorities would utilize these groups in any escalation in Suwayda. Previously, the Assad regime deployed the same divide-and-conquer strategy exacerbating tensions between Daraa and Suwayda to ensure a divided southern front.
The latest unrest in south Syria is reminiscent of past conflagrations between interim authorities and their rivals around the country. Interim authorities’ moves against Druze groups in Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya in April also started as ostensibly “local” clashes before Ministry of Defense units moved in to capitalize on the unrest.
Military Developments
After the original outbreak of clashes, interim authorities supported Bedouin forces on the ground with reinforcements from the Ministry of Defense, special forces and General Security units. Estimated to include around 12,000 fighters, this significant force comprised forces from military divisions in close geographic proximity to Suwayda as well as reliable ideological allies to interim President Ahmad al-Shara’a and interim authorities, including special forces personnel largely from HTS’ former elite “Red Bands” units (including Shaheen drone operators) and hardline foreign fighters.
At around 7am on 14th July, this new force launched a coordinated, multi-pronged attack from several locations in eastern Daraa towards Al-Dour, Al-Duweirah, Samea and Al-Ta’irah in western Suwayda. Pro-government forces secured control of these towns and several others in the western countryside including Al-Dara, Al-Mazra’a and Al-Tha’aleh before entering Suwayda’s provincial capital early on Tuesday morning. Advancing forces employed tanks and armored vehicles, 130mm artillery and Shaheen drones. ETANA assesses that pro-government forces are generally moving to control and conquer territory inside Suwayda, rather than provide guarantees of safety to local civilians.
Interim authorities were concurrently negotiating surrender terms with senior Druze cleric Sheikh Youssef al-Jarbou and Sheikhs of Dignity Movement leader Yahya al-Hajjar, while Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri rejected any mediation efforts without the end of violations inside Suwayda city. Interim Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra subsequently announced a “complete ceasefire” in Suwayda city “following an agreement with the city’s elders and dignitaries” although a full ceasefire was not implemented on the ground in actuality.
Under this agreement, which did not include al-Hijri, military forces would withdraw to the city-limits and General Security and police units would assume control of the city. Interim authorities’ repeated, expanding list of violations against civilians is hardening the Druze position in ongoing negotiations, and despite guarantees that they will hold accountable those perpetrating abuses, interim authorities’ lack of command-chain control and accountability mechanisms mean civilians are experiencing similar abuses, albeit on a smaller scale, to those witnessed on the coast in March.
Israeli Intervention
In contrast to violence around Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya earlier this year, when Israel’s air force launched dynamic, front-line airstrikes to stem pro-government advances against Druze factions around Damascus, ETANA on Monday initially recorded just one Israeli airstrike against advancing Bedouin and Ministry of Defense forces, which targeted a gathering of tanks west of the town of Al-Ta’irah in western Suwayda. However, Tuesday afternoon saw a noted escalation in Israeli drone strikes and airstrikes, which targeted several military bases in Daraa province and vehicles and equipment in Suwayda province.
Wednesday saw further Israeli attacks against advancing pro-government forces. ETANA recorded five raids targeting checkpoints in northern Suwayda’s Al-Shaqraniyeh and the 52nd Brigade’s site at Al-Tha’aleh Military Airport, resulting in 40 casualties. Additional Israeli strikes are expected as hostilities and violations against Druze civilians continue, although at the time of writing Israeli forces had just taken the unprecedented step of targeting the People’s Palace (formerly the Presidential Palace) and interim Ministry of Defense in Damascus (which killed three guards at the entrance of the building), likely in an attempt to threaten and pressure interim authorities into ordering a full withdrawal from Suwayda. No such orders have been issued yet.
Violations & Displacements
Advancing pro-government forces have committed widespread violations since entering western Suwayda, such as kidnappings of civilians (including the kidnapping of dozens of women and girls from several towns) and looting of housing and properties vacated by fleeing civilians. ETANA has received reports of approximately 200 kidnapped individuals so far. Local reports also estimate that around of 3,000 civilian properties have been looted or burned down by pro-government forces. Families sheltering in the Radwan Guesthouse in central Suwayda city were reportedly killed when armed men in military uniforms stormed the building and opened fire, according to Suwayda24. There are multiple reports and open-source videos pointing to the sectarianized (anti-Druze) nature of some of these abuses, again reminiscent of events on the coast earlier this year. Many civilians who could flee advancing forces have done so; others staying behind are subject to violations, including extra-judicial killings.
Levels of displacement have been high. Estimates thus far indicate more than 90,000 people have been displaced as a result of clashes and advances by pro-government forces, with many seeking refuge in areas to the south of Suwayda city. Villages in northern and western Suwayda—including Al-Dour, Al-Duweireh, Hazem, Hurran, Kanaker, Al-Majdal, Al-Mazra’a, Al-Mujemir, Nijran, Radimet al-Liwa, Al-Sawara al-Kubra, Al-Tha’aleh, Al-Ti’arah, Ura and Walgha—have been almost entirely emptied of their civilian inhabitants fearful of advancing forces.
Suwayda province remains besieged from all sides with basic supplies urgently needed—most immediately, food and medicine. Civilian infrastructure including supermarkets, corner shops and pharmacies have been reportedly looted and burned by pro-government forces, thereby exacerbating the shortage in supplies. Electricity, and consequently internet, and water in the province remain cut off.
