Amid the fallout of attacks in Suwayda and ongoing Israeli ground incursions, interim authorities’ governance patterns in the south-west have seen little change. Damascus continues to rely on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) allies while isolating prominent local figures in the south, creating increasingly destabilizing security dynamics. This has been further compounded by Israel’s continued intervention and occupation of territory in the south as well as the concerning re-emergence of ISIS cells. These threats will persist unless serious work is undertaken to make governance in the south-west more inclusive.
Rising lawlessness
With rising lawlessness and increased ISIS activity, the security situation in south Syria is beginning to resemble regime-era instability. After a period of low visibility following the fall of the Assad regime, ISIS appears to be re-emerging in the south: in mid-September, militants captured and later executed a member of Internal Security in Daraa. Attackers filmed and released a recording of the killing, suggesting a renewed willingness to garner attention.
Assassinations, prominent in the south after the regime’s takeover in 2018, are also on the rise. A pattern has emerged in recent weeks of assassinations targeting former opposition fighters, none of whom were affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). ETANA recorded at least 16 assassinations in September alone. Interim security forces, meanwhile, have conducted dozens of arrests in recent weeks targeting former opposition fighters, drug smugglers, Hezbollah operatives and former regime remnants.
Armed attacks are also increasingly targeting Internal Security forces, raising alarms in Damascus. Amid what interim administration officials view as a deteriorating security environment in south Syria, Daraa’s Internal Security chief Shaher Omran and local security officers were reportedly summoned for meetings with Interior Minister Anas Khattab. The meeting addressed the troubling rise in lawlessness, increasing frequency of attacks against security forces and growing instability across the region.
Israeli operations
Israeli forces continue to practice regular and unlawful incursions into south Syria, concentrated primarily in western Daraa and parts of Quneitra. As part of their operations, Israeli soldiers often search homes and vehicles for weapons, and in some cases arrest residents. The arrests are generally not long-term: individuals are usually released hours after their detention.
Israeli warplanes and reconnaissance drones are also conducting near-daily flights over Daraa and Quneitra provinces, with intensified aerial activities generally coinciding with ground incursions. Alongside these operations, UN peacekeeping patrols conduct regular movements in Quneitra to monitor Israeli activity and interact with residents.
Counter-smuggling operations
Interim security forces also carried out several targeted raids across the south to combat drug production and smuggling, resulting in drugs and weapons seizures. A large quantity of Captagon pills were also seized at the Nassib-Jaber border crossing during an attempting smuggling operation. In late September, Syrian and Jordanian forces announced the completion of their first joint anti-drug operation, which reportedly saw several cross-border attempts thwarted and the seizure of around one million pills intended for distribution. This follows an agreement between Damascus and Amman to form joint security groups focused on countering narcotics smuggling from Syria.
