The ceasefire between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus has provided crucial cover for all parties to pursue negotiations towards a political solution for the north-east, and envoys from the SDF and Damascus have held a series of consultations on military integration. However, the fractured nature of the SDF leadership is proving a formidable obstacle, with figures from more hardline factions expressing vocal opposition to any plan that would see Syria’s interim Ministry of Defense assume security control over the region.
In public statements, negotiations between the SDF and Damascus are being presented in a largely positive light: the parties’ two main backers, namely Türkiye and the US-led International Coalition, are applying pressure on the respective leaderships to reach a swift agreement that could resolve the question of north-east Syria. However, the reality behind the scenes is less encouraging: progress on key issues, such as military integration and the syncing of governing bodies, remains stalled.
All eyes were on interim President Ahmad al-Shara’a during his historic meeting at the White House yesterday, where President Trump confirmed that Syria will join the US-led International Coalition against ISIS. The announcement came after a series of timely raids across the country targeting ISIS cells. This will come as a blow to Syria’s Kurds, who have now lost a significant point of leverage in their entreaties for continued international support.
Ceasefire Developments
In early October, following the outbreak of violence in the Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh in Aleppo and rapid mobilizations across north-east Syria, a hastily brokered, US-mediated ceasefire halted clashes between interim government troops and the SDF. While last month’s ceasefire is largely holding, it has also granted a temporary reprieve for both parties to dispel pressure for an immediate solution to the question of north-east Syria, affording much-needed cover for discussions to unfold with Damascus on a range of security, governance and societal issues. Still, several ceasefire violations were recorded around the Tishreen Dam, Sheikh Maqsoud and along opposing banks of the Euphrates River. These outbursts of violence mostly indicate the SDF’s fractured control over its on-the-ground cadres rather than a concerted attempt by leaders on either side to up-end the ceasefire. Key prisoner swaps took place under the auspices of the ceasefire.
The ceasefire violations likely reflect a decline of the SDF’s centralized command-and-control, with a significant portion of personnel and wounded fighters having gone two to three months without salaries. No official explanation has been provided. The SDF is also dealing with a number of desertions, primarily among Arab SDF personnel, who overwhelmingly favor reintegration within a unified Syrian state under the government in Damascus. To remedy this, the SDF announced a general amnesty for any defectors who surrender within 14 days and return to service.
Other Security Developments
The SDF detained at least 18 individuals in recent weeks, on accusations including alleged links to Ankara-backed factions, involvement in a narcotics-related operation in Karhouk, terrorism links and possession of pro-government imagery. Raids and search operations occurred in Qamishli and rural areas of eastern Hasakeh, with several large-scale cordon and house-search activities reported but not always resulting in arrests.
Concerningly, a pair of IED explosions occurred in southern Hasakeh, an area marked by longstanding stability and an absence of explosive blasts in recent years. One IED attack injured several SDF troops while another blast detonated prematurely, killing and injuring several militants attempting to plant the trap near Al-Hadadiyeh. The two attacks, likely conducted by extremists, took place just south of Hasakeh, an area long considered stable and safe from these types of attacks, potentially hinting at a larger comeback by ISIS cells in the region.
Al-Hol Camp
More than six years after its establishment as the primary holding area for families of ISIS fighters, at least 35,000 detainees in Al-Hol camp remain in legal limbo. In October, the SDF returned 22 foreign youths—aged between 15 and 17 years old and predominantly from Asian nationalities—to Al-Hol after an earlier transfer from the camp to rehabilitation centers. This marks the second such return in 2025, following another group in July.
