For another week, there has been no change on the ground in Suwayda, with ceasefire violations limited to small-scale armed exchanges. Interim President Ahmad al-Shara’a’s administration appear to be using the roadmap agreement as their legitimizing reference for what comes next in Suwayda. However, divisions are growing within the province itself. Interim authorities appear to be using Al-Mazra’a, the largest town in the government-occupied western countryside, to try and establish an alternative power center to Suwayda city while encouraging disarmament and returns there. Meanwhile, frustrations are growing amongst some Druze factions in Suwayda—particularly those from the western countryside—to liberate the 34 villages still under government control. Attempts are reportedly underway to convene government and Hirji-affiliated representatives for regionally mediated negotiations—perhaps the only way to reinvigorate a political stand-off that being remains stagnant and unmoving, with each side blaming the other for a lack of flexibility.
Ceasefire Updates
Although Suwayda’s ceasefire is holding and retains the buy-in of international and local actors, frustrations are growing amongst some Druze factions—particularly those from the western countryside—over the fate of the 34 Druze villages in this area that are still under the control of interim authorities, months after the end of hostilities in the south. Signs of this growing frustration within Suwayda’s factional milieu prompted appeals for calm and order from leading commanders. Suwayda’s operations room issued a statement describing any talk of a deadline for the withdrawal of pro-government forces from the 34 villages as “incorrect” and “malicious” rumors, before reiterating its commitment to the tripartite ceasefire. The National Guard subsequently ordered all its units to forbid combat groups from deploying on any front “except by operational order,” likely an attempt to limit the risk of ceasefire violations committed by Druze units.
At the same time, the National Guard held a military parade in Suwayda city on 25th September. Meant as a show of force, the parade sparked criticism from some segments of the local population because of the display of religious slogans and the presence of masked fighters from newly formed special forces units.
ETANA recorded five ceasefire violations in the last week of September. Although this is a higher weekly count that in previous weeks, these violations are all small-scale, local incidents that have not threatened the stability or longevity of the ceasefire. In one instance, pro-government forces based in Al-Walgha village crossed front-lines into Druze-controlled areas of western Suwayda but were pushed back by machine-gun fire from National Guard units. In line with the July ceasefire agreement, interim authorities released 22 Suwayda residents who had been abducted by security forces and/or affiliated pro-government forces from different areas of Suwayda during violence in July.
Further south, Jordanian border guards thwarted at least two cross-border attempts by drug smuggling gangs operating in southern areas of rural Suwayda since last week. On 22nd September, drug smugglers attempted to fly 200,000 Captagon pills in hot-air balloons into the Free Zone between Syria and Jordan, but the entire shipment was confiscated by Jordanian forces. Days later, another attempt by smugglers, further east in south-east Suwayda’s remote Al-Hamad region, used balloons to carry approximately 250,000 pills, but was again thwarted by Jordanian authorities.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
Since last week, the Damascus-appointed governor of Suwayda, Mustafa Bakour, has been signaling interim authorities’ commitment to the return of IDPs to Suwayda’s western countryside. Speaking to media last week, he announced that authorities will pay a stipend to those wishing to return; a government committee has also been formed to oversee the return of IDPs. Meanwhile, the organizing committee of the self-determination campaign in Suwayda announced it had collected 124,440 in-person signatures for its petition supporting self-determination and against the tripartite roadmap. The committee announced that the number of electronic signatures will be made public soon. In addition, at least a thousand protesters gathered in Shahba calling for self-determination in Suwayda and the release of abducted Druze residents held by pro-government armed groups.
Despite the incremental relaxation of the government-imposed blockade on Suwayda since July as aid and commercial shipments being allowed to enter the province, Suwayda continues to face regular shortages of flour and bread. Local officials started raising the alarm about upcoming bread shortages early last week, while criticizing interim authorities for limiting flour allocations designated for Suwayda. Just two trucks of flour entered Suwayda after their complaints, with flour supplies distributed to public bakeries in Suwayda city and Salkhad only, forcing bakeries in other places to close. Bakeries across the province remained closed until the weekend, when a convoy provided by the World Food Program shipped 200 tons of flour into Suwayda and allowed bakeries to resume work. Earlier last week, an aid convoy carrying food baskets, blankets, mattresses, electricity generators and other supplies entered Suwayda via the Damascus-Suwayda highway.
