There has been no change to the map of control in Suwayda since ETANA’s last reporting in late August. Suwayda’s ceasefire is holding, but prospects for long-term stability in the province remain elusive. There has been no substantive progress on the political level between Damascus and Suwayda’s Druze leadership and significant mistrust still exists between the two sides—evidenced by ongoing divisions and suspicions around the fate of internally displaced persons (IDPs), perpetrators of violations and the political relationship between state and province.
Another point of contention is the issue of returns for the thousands of displaced Druze and Bedouin residents. Displaced residents of 34 Druze villages in western Suwayda, which fall in areas under the control of General Security and pro-government armed groups, are still being prohibited from returning. At the same time, the interim administration is beginning to push for the return of tens of thousands of displaced Bedouins who evacuated Suwayda following the July ceasefire. This disparity is raising concerns among Druze residents about more far-reaching HLP violations, and that this area of western Suwayda could be used to settle Bedouins in their place in the future.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
In late August, the “humanitarian corridor” into Suwayda originally established by interim authorities, between Busra al-Sham and Bured, shifted following a series of attacks on traffic passing along the road by Bedouin militias. Since then, the route has shifted once more, with aid teams using the Damascus-Suwayda highway to bring supplies into the province: three UN aid shipments were brought in via this route between late August and early September. This road was closed for six weeks during, and in the aftermath of, the hostilities in July. In addition to aid convoys, goods and merchandise are being brought in via the Damascus-Suwayda road: a commercial convoy of 50 trucks carrying consumer goods reached Suwayda in early September, the first shipment of its kind in 45 days. This has led to a concurrent drop in commodity prices—with the margin relative to the rest of Syria falling recently to 20 percent (compared to between 30 and 80 percent in late August). However, fuel remains relatively scarce and therefore expensive: fuel in Suwayda costs five times as much as in other areas at the time of writing. As of 9th September, at least 11 aid trucks from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, reportedly carrying aid provided by the World Food Program (WFP), reached eastern Daraa bound for displaced Bedouin communities residing in over-crowded and poorly serviced shelters there.
There have been no returns of IDPs from Suwayda’s western countryside, areas of which are still under the effective control of General Security and other pro-government armed groups: returns to these areas are still prohibited. As a result, concerns are growing that the interim administration may seek to settle Bedouin IDPs from Suwayda (currently in eastern Daraa) without permitting the returns of Druze IDPs. Suwayda governor Mustafa al-Bakkour stated in a media interview that officials are working on a “comprehensive plan to return our displaced people from the villages of Suwayda—those currently residing in temporary shelters in Daraa province and within Suwayda city—back to their homes and properties in Suwayda.” The topic of returns is becoming an increasingly divisive issue between the interim administration and Suwayda’s Druze leadership: both sides blame the other for “besieging” civilians inside the province and preventing the return of different communities.
Military & Security Developments
There have been no changes to the map of control in Suwayda since ETANA’s last reporting, despite small-scale intermittent skirmishes in contravention of the tri-partite ceasefire brokered in late July. The partial blockade on Suwayda has been relieved somewhat by a series of aid shipments and commercial convoys bringing badly needed supplies into the province. There have been scattered ceasefire violations, including an early September incident in which government-affiliated groups fired machine guns toward central Suwayda city and Al-Majdal.
Another clause of the tri-partite ceasefire in Suwayda dealt with the handover of kidnapped civilians and detainees held by various armed groups on both sides of the frontlines. Interim authorities handed over the bodies of 16 detainees, held since hostilities in July, to their families earlier this week, the largest batch to be transferred according to the ceasefire agreement to date.
