After a series of different ceasefires beginning late Friday evening failed to halt fighting or force withdrawals from Suwayda by Bedouin fighters, a meeting in Amman held between Syrian, Jordanian and US officials on Saturday has managed to stem the worst of the recent violence—although ceasefire violations have continued since. As of Monday, Ministry of Defense and General Security units were still attacking northern Suwayda’s Shahba city—including with Shaheen drones and mortars, along with Al-Ariqah.
Although the current ceasefire is a positive development provided it can calm the unprecedented violence of last week and protect both Druze and Bedouin civilians from displacements, violations and reprisals, continued attacks by pro-government forces put its durability in doubt. Looking forward, al-Shara’a’s praise for Bedouin militias in “standing by the state” while referring to Druze factions in Suwayda as “outlaw groups” does little to repair the country’s fraying social fabric, but instead increases the sectarianized discourse around Druze-majority Suwayda as a threat to the post-Assad state.
Ceasefire agreements
With violence mounting from last Friday onwards, two ceasefire agreements hastily brokered over the weekend failed to stem the fighting. Late on Friday, an Israel-Syria ceasefire was meant to allow interim security forces to deploy to Suwayda without risk of Israeli airstrikes. A second, local, ceasefire was supposed to yield a full withdrawal of Ministry of Defense, General Security and tribal forces from Suwayda province by 6am the following day, but intense fighting broke out at that time as pro-government forces attacked Suwayda city, Shahba and other areas of northern and western Suwayda.
In the wake of the two failed ceasefires, Syrian, Jordanian and US officials held trilateral talks in Amman on Saturday evening with the aim of solidifying the ceasefire on the ground. Participants agreed on “practical steps aimed at supporting Syria in implementing the agreement,” according to a statement from Syria’s Foreign Ministry, which would purportedly include stabilization of the ceasefire, deployment of interim security forces inside the province, release of detainees and the facilitation of humanitarian aid shipments.
To end hostilities in Suwayda, three specific points and stages were laid out: one, a full ceasefire and withdrawal of Bedouin forces from Suwayda; two, the exchange of civilians kidnapped by armed actors on both sides; and three, the return of state institutions within Suwayda. For now, the ceasefire appears to be holding despite violations. At the time of writing, the province’s Druze leadership are said to be rejecting the implementation of the third point, still blaming interim authorities for instigating recent violence and committing myriad violations against Druze civilians.
In a speech delivered Saturday morning as intense fighting continued in Suwayda despite the previous night’s ceasefire announcement, interim President Ahmad al-Shara’a welcomed the agreement and called on all parties to respect its implementation, but—troublingly—also thanked Bedouin armed groups for their role in “standing by the state.” This raises concerns that al-Shara’a may seek to rely on loyalist militias outside official command-chain structures in the future, a tactic reminiscent of the Assad regime’s past use of militias.
Military developments
For now, the latest ceasefire appears to be holding, although violations are ongoing, including fighting reported in Shahba and Al-Ariqah. Currently, General Security still holds positions recently set up in the western countryside. In effect, General Security moved into tribal areas of Suwayda to purportedly replace unruly Bedouin fighters committing violations and did not enter areas controlled by Druze fighters. Shahba was one of the epicenters of fierce fighting that broke out early on Saturday morning. Attacks by interim authorities’ forces continued on Monday evening, with units affiliated with the Ministry of Defense and General Security attacking both towns. Operations by interim security forces on Shahba are employing Shaheen drones in these operations, their first reported use for several days.
Political & humanitarian developments
The estimated number of civilians displaced in south Syria in recent days has exceeded 170,000 people based on field reports, with displacement rates highest amongst civilians fleeing Suwayda’s western countryside and Suwayda city. This also includes an estimated 10,000 civilians from Bedouin tribes, who have fled west across the provincial border into eastern Daraa.
Humanitarian aid reached Suwayda over the weekend, but only the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) was allowed to enter. Officials from the interim authorities, including the ministers of health, social affairs and labor, were refused entry to Suwayda. Meanwhile, Suwayda’s health sector is working at minimal level: most hospitals are barely operating and several closed over the weekend; meanwhile, pharmacies are missing most of the key supplies currently in demand. Fuel shortages are hindering the movement of emergency and medical personnel and contributing to displacements, while areas across Suwayda are witnessing an unprecedented shortage of drinking water, in part because electricity has been cut off for more than a week.
