The battlefield success of opposition forces is rapidly altering the political and military landscape of Syria. Opposition forces have maintained their momentum across multiple fronts, capturing strategic towns and positions throughout the northern Hama countryside despite the regime’s efforts to bolster defenses. Parallel advances by Turkish-backed factions dislodged the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from eastern Aleppo city and seized the strategic base of Tel Rifaat. However, this offensive has coincided with a sharp deterioration in humanitarian conditions across civilian areas of Idlib and Aleppo, as withering Russian bombardment has forced tens of thousands to flee amid severe shortages of food and medical supplies.
Factions within the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) also made swift advances against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) western Aleppo, capturing the crucial military stronghold of Tal Rifaat late on 1st December. Following the swift collapse of regime defenses across front-line positions in Aleppo province, the SDF had moved in to seize Aleppo’s airport and secure its positions in Tal Rifaat—which had previously been governed under a joint military agreement between the regime, Russia and SDF. Fierce clashes, including repeated suicide drone attacks by opposition factions, ultimately saw SDF positions in Tal Rifaat captured by Turkish-backed forces in the evening while the SDF withdrew towards Manbij.
Russian forces stepped-up a broad campaign of aerial bombardments against opposition-held territories over the past 48 hours, striking dozens of locations across newly captured areas of Aleppo and bombing entire neighborhoods of Idlib city and the surrounding province with airstrikes. The targets have been overwhelmingly civilian in nature, with at least half a dozen hospitals hit so far and at least 14 civilians killed. However, while the widespread Russian bombardment has expanded in intensity and scope, it has also precipitated displacements of an estimated 57,0000 displaced civilians northward towards ad hoc camps along the Turkish border.
In the south, regime checkpoints and patrols have come under repeated attack at several locations across Daraa and Suwayda, with local armed groups seeking to join the opposition movement spreading across the north-west. At least 12 regime fighters have been killed in a series of armed attacks involving light and medium weapons, the highest toll in months.
Operation Deterring Aggression
Opposition factions’ “Operation Deterring Aggression” has slowed but continued to make in-roads in the northern Hama countryside, with major clashes ongoing around the town of Qamhana, just five kilometers north of Hama city. On the Hama front, the pace of the opposition advance has slowed, but the frontline appears to be holding against regime pushback. Opposition fighters were still able to capture several towns in the northern Hama countryside, including Karnaz and Qalaat al-Madiq.
The regime’s National Defense Forces (NDF) militia has also initiated a country-wide recruitment drive, seeking young men across all areas of regime control to bolster its ranks. The drive is intended to rapidly channel new recruits towards the frontlines in the north, indicative of the regime’s larger manpower shortages amidst the renewed opposition campaign.
Operation Dawn of Freedom
As Syrian regime defenses unexpectedly crumbled along the frontlines with opposition forces in the western Aleppo countryside in late November, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitalized on the chaos to secure its positions in areas vacated by retreating regime forces to the east of Aleppo city. Additionally, the strategically significant base of Tal Rifaat—previously governed under a tripartite agreement between the regime, Russia, and the SDF—fell under total SDF control as pro-regime forces, including Russian troops, hastily withdrew from the area.
In concert with the sweeping “Operation Deterring Aggression” campaign that breached regime defenses on the frontlines of Aleppo and Idlib provinces, a second joint operations room, named Fajr al-Hurriyeh (Dawn of Freedom), was established by SNA groups with the aim of dislodging the SDF from its newly expanded territory. The SDF quickly withdrew from front-line positions in east Aleppo and the airport without clashes. Pitched battles erupted around the town of Tal Rifaat as the SNA besieged the area, with an unknown number of SDF casualties recorded in the clashes. After hours of fighting, the SDF withdrew from the area, with its troops making a rapid retreat towards the city of Manbij further east.
Humanitarian Developments
The past few days have witnessed more than 50 Russian and regime airstrikes across north-west Syria, overwhelmingly targeting civilian areas in both Idlib and Aleppo. Most victims have been women and children. Direct hits were recorded against the Idlib University Hospital, Ibn Sina Hospital, National Hospital, Children’s Hospital and Directorate of Health in Idlib, as well as the University Hospital in Aleppo. At least 14 civilians have been killed in this bombardment in recent days, while 55 others were seriously wounded. Hospitals in Aleppo city are now suffering from a serious shortage of medical staff.
The Russian air campaign and fears of regime retaliation against civilian neighborhoods has precipitated a major displacement crisis, sending thousands of people fleeing north toward makeshift camps and shelters near the Syrian-Turkish border. At least 57,000 individuals and 11,000 families are believed to have fled their homes so far. The largest exodus of civilians has been from the city of Idlib and surrounding area, where Russian bombing is currently the most intense. Food and essential supplies have also grown scarce in many bombarded areas, with shortages of bread, fuel and medical supplies feeding into a sense of panic among targeted communities.
South Syria Developments
As opposition successes have mounted in north-west Syria, regime forces have also faced a wave of small-scale ambushes and irregular attacks against military positions across south Syria’s Suwayda and Daraa. At least 12 soldiers have been killed in these attacks–the highest casualty rate in the region in months.
Anti-regime demonstrations have also erupted anew across south Syria, with protests taking place across nine locations in Daraa over the past few days. At least 600 individuals have taken part in the public demonstrations. Druze religious leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri issued a statement supporting the military campaign in north-west Syria while emphasizing the importance of avoiding harm to civilians. In his statement, he held the Syrian regime accountable for the country’s deteriorating situation.
