In contrast to recent escalations in Lebanon, Iranian-backed militias in south Syria have remained quiet in recent weeks. By the end of June, the south-west had seen 60 continuous days without an offensive rocket attack by Iranian-backed militants. With upcoming parliamentary elections for the People’s Assembly scheduled for 15th July, the regime has sought to ease security tensions and curry favour with communities across south Syria. Officials are seeking to legitimize Ba’ath Party control and push an image of control and normalcy by establishing polling centers across the region—much of which has not participated in national elections since before 2011. Of the 14 Ba’ath Party candidates selected in Daraa, most are not native to the region and are regarded as pro- Iranian—another demonstrations of Tehran’s political reach in south Syria.
Border Developments
Iranian-backed militias based in the south have been quiet compared to previous months: the region has now gone nearly two months without any offensive rocket attacks by militants toward the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israeli forces, meanwhile, carried out early morning drone strikes on Syrian regime sites in southern and northern Quneitra on 19th June, hitting 90th and 112th Brigade positions. The only two confirmed casualties were Syrian officers.
Instability in South Syria
General instability and violence have been on the rise across south Syria, and with it, a jump in the number of armed attacks against regime troops. Across June, six ambushes targeted convoys and checkpoints, particularly in western Daraa province. At least four regime troops were killed. Additionally, two IED attacks targeting regime forces were recorded in recent weeks, with blasts killing at least one soldier and injuring five others in Busr al-Harir in eastern Daraa.
The number of targeted killings has also increased, with victims including both notable public figures and unaffiliated civilians. Assassinations more than doubled since May, resulting in as many as 40 deaths. Among the victims were 4th Division members, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters, ISIS cells militants, drug traffickers, reconciled former opposition members, Military Intelligence and Air Force Intelligence operatives, Hezbollah affiliates, Liwa al-Quds fighters, a Military Police officer and several civilians.
Kidnappings, drug trafficking and general lawlessness have increased, with a spike in narcotics-related violence coinciding with the peak of the cross-border smuggling season. On 26th June, Jordanian forces seized large caches of narcotics coming from Syria. One smuggler was killed and several others injured in the operation.
Political and Humanitarian Developments
Though the product is primarily smuggled outside the country, Captagon use has spiked locally in the south. In the Al-Lajat region alone, monthly consumption is estimated at around 35,000 pills in total. The number is even higher—more than 400,000 pills—in eastern Daraa. Additionally, the price of crystal methamphetamine has reportedly declined in recent weeks by 50% to 400,000 Syrian pounds (approximately $27) per gram.
As the 15th July parliamentary elections for the Syrian People’s Assembly draw nearer, voices in Daraa are calling for a boycott of the vote while efforts to obstruct the delivery of ballot boxes are taking place in several communities. Municipal leaders in eastern Daraa have received threats over their participation in the process. Ba’ath Party candidates who have been selected to stand are largely from outside the region and are noted for their strong ties to Iran.
230 young men from south Syria arrived in Italy aboard migrant boats from Libya in recent weeks; however, not all ships arrived safely. Another vessel carrying refugees from south-west Syria sank en route, with the exact number of Syrian casualties still unknown.
