Arrest campaigns are ongoing across Syria, with security forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) pursuing wanted regime personnel yet to complete settlement procedures and handover weapons caches. Several regime officers were taken into custody while another 100 former army personnel were released after investigations found that they were not involved in past regime abuses. Even so, with questions mounting about the lack of process involved in these operations, reports suggest that some recently arrested individuals—particularly low-level shabiha identified by local communities for their role in past abuses—are being executed after their arrest. Authorities are increasingly describing these incidents as “individual cases,” an attempt to portray them as acts of community revenge rather than the product of a chaotic, retributive security situation.
Security Dynamics
The Military Operations Administration and General Security, the two main security bodies in HTS-led areas, continued raids and arrest campaigns across the country in pursuit of wanted regime personnel and individuals yet to complete settlement procedures and handover weapons caches. Arrest campaigns were reported in Rural Damascus, Daraa, Hama, Homs and the Syrian coast. Operations saw the arrest of several regime personnel as well as larger numbers of low-level regime “thugs” and shabiha. However, there are mounting questions about the lack of process involved in these operations, with reports from Homs and other areas suggesting that some recently arrested individuals—particularly low-level shabiha identified by local communities for their role in past abuses—are being executed after their arrest by security forces or vigilantes acting in their name. Authorities are increasingly describing these incidents as “individual cases,” an attempt to portray them as acts of community revenge rather than the product of a chaotic, retributive security situation.
At the same time, interim authorities are releasing some recent detainees—mostly former army personnel who investigations found were not involved in rights abuses in the past. Authorities released 40 people detained in a campaign in Rural Damascus’ Qara earlier in the month as well as 100 other people, mostly from Homs and Latakia, after investigations found they were not involved in past regime abuses.
An ISIS cell reportedly attacked a Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) military vehicle in eastern Deir Ezzor on 18th January, resulting in the serious injury of two SDF members. Two other ISIS attacks were reported in other areas of the province the same week. In Al-Hasakeh, meanwhile, five ISIS fighters attacked an SDF checkpoint on the road between Al-Hasakeh and Al-Shaddadeh.
Interim Governance
Syria’s Ministry of Defense continues to regularly post pictures of meetings with factional leaders and Interim Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra, however little tangible progress is being made to unify former opposition factions under its administration. There is still no clear plan for how different factions will surrender their arms, with talks still moving towards a piecemeal “army of militias” as opposed to a professionalized, unified military force. In one positive sign, a committee has been established to structure the ministry that includes former defectors (albeit those closer to HTS) who have more institutional experience within Syria’s former armed forces. HTS’ largely exclusivist approach to interim administration is still creating tensions among factions now being asked to disarm and dissolve themselves.
Ali Keda was appointed as interim interior minister, replacing Muhammad Abdulrahman who was reassigned as governor of Idlib. A former army engineering officer who is not ideologically aligned with Salafi-jihadism, Keda brings with him years of institutional experience that could help to professionalize some aspects of the Ministry of Interior and better control the chaotic security situation in Syria at present. Keda previously served as prime minister in HTS’ Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib from 2019 until last year, earning a more positive reputation compared with other top HTS figures through his largely administrative (rather than security) role in building up the SSG during a time of instability in the north-west. While Keda was and still is regarded as a close adviser of Ahmad al-Shara’a (otherwise known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani), his appointment represents a potential opening and a relative change from recent exclusivist and at times controversial appointment—some of which seem to prioritize ideological affiliation to HTS rather than skills and experience required in a particular role.
At the same time, civil society groups and victim-survivor associations are expressing frustration over the lack of access to al-Jolani and the rest of the interim leadership in Damascus. After al-Jolani met with the mother of missing US journalist Austin Tice last week, activists and families of Syria’s missing and disappeared detainees questioned the optics of the meeting when detainees’ groups have repeatedly sought an audience with the de facto leader to no avail. Others have complained about governorate-level officials’ courting of famous TikTok and YouTube personalities while ignoring requests for meetings from intellectuals, political figures and other experts.
Israeli Incursions
South-west Syria has seen sustained and repeated incursions by Israeli forces coming from the occupied Golan Heights and other Israeli-occupied areas of Quneitra province beyond the 1974 demilitarization line. Israeli tanks and bulldozers conducted further incursions into areas of southern Quneitra and south-west Daraa. In a new escalation, an Israeli strike on 16th January targeted an HTS-led convoy trying to reach southern Quneitra’s Ghadeer al-Bustan, killing the town’s mayor and one member of the accompanying security forces.
Türkiye/SNA & SDF Hostilities in Aleppo & North-East Syria
Skirmishes are ongoing between Türkiye, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the SDF around the Tishreen Dam and other areas of Aleppo province’s eastern Manbij countryside. Most recently, clashes were reported near Manshiyet al-Sheikh and to the south and east of Al-Shash and Al-Zamaleh, where the SNA lost seven fighters in SDF drone attacks and ambushes to the south of the dam site. Fighting appears to be relatively back and forth for the time being, although the SNA made some advances since last week. Days ago, the SNA was able to make some eastward advances, killing several SDF fighters in the process. Forces from the HTS-led Military Operations Administration also sent reinforcements from various factions to support SNA advances against the SDF in eastern Aleppo.
Turkish airstrikes and artillery bombardments targeted SDF positions in Al-Jarniyah, Sakiro, Al-Shariqah and Al-Tarwaziyeh in Raqqa and around the Tishreen Dam, Kobane/Ain al-Arab and the Qere Qozak Bridge in eastern Aleppo. Protesters gathering at the Tishreen Dam at the instigation of the SDF and Self Administration are being repeatedly targeted by Turkish drone strikes: three people were killed and dozens injured in one attack over the weekend while another drone strike killed two people to the east of the Tishreen Dam days later. Six SDF members were killed in a Turkish drone strike south of the dam.