Caretaker President Ahmad al-Shara’a (previously known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani) took the first steps towards organizing the much-anticipated National Dialogue Conference, appointing a preparatory committee tasked with laying the groundwork for the conference. The committee includes two women (one Christian and one Muslim) as well as five men who are regarded as conservatives with ideological or political links to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The announcement is a step towards turning to internal matters, following weeks of minimal official engagement with factions and other key domestic stakeholders within Syria. As the foundation for defining Syria’s national identity, constitution and future electoral process, the forthcoming but as-yet-undated conference represents a critical step in shaping an eventual transition to an inclusive civilian government. However, the composition of the committee—dominated largely by HTS insiders—once again raises concerns about the group’s domination over the country’s politics as well as potential exclusion of key actors and minority groups, continuing a trend that has come to define the first two months of de facto and caretaker leadership from al-Shara’a.
Caretaker Governance
Syria’s caretaker President Ahmad al-Shara’a, announced the formation of a preparatory committee tasked with organizing the much-anticipated National Dialogue Conference, meant to be a pivotal step in the country’s post-Assad political transition. The committee, unveiled on Wednesday, comprises seven members—five men and two women—who will oversee the consultation process leading up to the conference. Tasked with defining Syria’s national identity, constitution and future electoral process in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s fall, the conference is expected to play a crucial role in shaping Syria’s political future. Although the formation of the committee is a welcome step—the absence of the committee was one of the reasons why caretaker authorities repeatedly postponed the conference from January onwards—there are still signs that caretaker authorities intend to carefully stage-manage next steps. Notably, the size of the conference has been reduced to about a third of the originally stated 1,200-1,500 people, arguably making it less representative and comprehensive. Additionally, all men appointed to the preparatory committee are conservative Islamist scholars and administrators with ideological or political ties to HTS.
On the military front, the Ministry of Defense established a commission to prepare a comprehensive restructuring of the military under a new reformed Syrian army, which the authorities hope can integrate and consolidate armed factions into a unified force. The commission has been tasked with conducting an in-depth inventory of weapons, personnel and assets of factions across the country while overseeing the dissolution of non-state armed groups. Several key appointments were also announced for the Ministry of Defense: General Anas Darwish was assigned to oversee the Administrative Affairs Department while General Muhammad Mansour will now manage the Officer Affairs Department. Command positions have also been filled across key regions: Haitham al-Ali will head the Homs Division, Bunyan Ahmad al-Hariri the Daraa Division, and Abu al-Qassim Bayt Jinn the Syrian Air Force. Additionally, new military units are being formed to enhance security and operational capacity in Damascus, Hama, the Badia region and Idlib.
Talks are also underway between caretaker Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra and heads of the southern factions about forming a “Southern Division” of the Syrian army, which would effectively incorporate Ahmad al-Awdeh’s groups as a bloc within the reformed Syrian military. Amid all the new announcements, the Ministry of Defense also issued a directive prohibiting military bodies from speaking with members of the media.
Notably, however, Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) groups have been absent from discussions around the Ministry of Defense. One of the reasons for this may have been a bout of intra-SNA infighting over control of smuggling routes and a border crossing with Türkiye. Violent clashes erupted between the SNA’s Military Police and Failaq al-Sham in Tal Abyad, resulting in severe injuries on both sides and causing widespread panic among civilians.
Security Dynamics
Caretaker authorities have made significant strides toward securing key smuggling routes along porous Lebanese border areas in western Homs province. Following the kidnapping of two Syrian troops by Hezbollah-linked armed groups, HTS-led military units launched a large-scale offensive against the border town of Hawik, where the smuggling groups responsible were based. After heavy clashes involving artillery, the detained Syrians were released, and an agreement was reached with Lebanese authorities to reinforce the area with Lebanese army troops to reduce local smuggling and improve security.
Caretaker security forces continued operations against criminal gangs, drug smuggling networks and remnants of former regime forces holding out in Homs, Latakia and Rural Damascus. Fighters and wanted individuals were rounded up in dozens of raids that also seized large quantities of weapons and narcotics. Among numerous notable arrests, a prison guard from Military Intelligence’s notorious Palestine Branch was captured along with several commanders from the former regime’s National Defense Forces (NDF) militia. And despite myriad ongoing challenges, there are signs that armed and criminal activity could be receding for the first time due to concerted campaigns by the Military Operations Administration and General Security. With organized crime groups targeted repeatedly by General Security since January, overall numbers of kidnappings and thefts are declining—particularly in the restive provinces of Homs and Latakia.
Israeli Attacks & Incursions in South Syria
Israeli forces continue to bombard Syrian military warehouses and ammunition depots across the country. Israeli warplanes targeted warehouses in Jabal al-Mania, near Al-Kisweh in Rural Damascus, leading to massive explosions and fires. The Deir Ali housing area in southern Rural Damascus was also struck by Israeli warplanes. Other targets included a warehouse near Inkhil in Daraa province, Khalkhaleh Military Airport in rural Suwayda province and near Jiroud al-Hermel close to the Syrian-Lebanese border. Israeli forces also continued regular incursions into south Syria, where most recently their forces randomly fired on several occasions at civilians in Ruweihina in Quneitra, injuring a child and a shepherd.
Türkiye/SNA & SDF Hostilities in Aleppo & North-East Syria
Intense clashes between the SNA and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) re-erupted around the Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge, accompanied by heavy artillery shelling from Turkish forces. Turkish artillery also targeted areas near Raqqa’s Ain Issa and Safawiyeh. The SDF retaliated by shelling the outskirts of Suluk.
SDF forces launched multiple missile and drone strikes on three Turkish military bases near Tal Tamr, targeting the Imam, Manakh and Salhiyeh bases. No confirmed casualty reports have emerged following the strikes. Turkish airstrikes continued to target SDF positions across north-east Syria, including areas in Aleppo, Hasakeh and Raqqa provinces. Unknown numbers of civilians were killed in these attacks.
