The eruption of sectarian violence in Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya–two Druze-majority areas located to the south and south-east of Damascus–marks a dangerous escalation in Syria’s post-Assad transition. The speed and intensity of the violence, the direct involvement of state-backed forces, and the regional interventions it has triggered have fuelled deep concern among Syrians, especially in the minority Druze community. Fears are mounting that the country is sliding towards a new phase of internal conflict driven by sectarian fragmentation and revenge. Without urgent course correction from interim authorities, Syria risks entering a prolonged period of societal rupture and civil conflict.
Background & recent developments
On 27 April, a leaked recording allegedly insulting the Prophet Muhammad sparked violent sectarian clashes across Syria. The most severe fighting took place in Druze-majority areas around Damascus, where pro-government and affiliated armed groups attacked Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya, prompting large-scale Israeli airstrikes and widespread mobilisation. A cessation of hostilities and settlement agreements have now been made in Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya allowing the army to enter the areas, heavy weaponry will be delivered to the authorities. The General Security forces have now begun to enter the areas.
Tensions in Suwayda began to subside following a statement issued after a key meeting between Druze figures and Damascus. Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, one of Suwayda’s most influential spiritual leaders, was present at the meeting but was not included in the public announcement of the statement. The statement stressed Druze unity within the Syrian state and rejected external interference. It further noted that police and General Security forces would be drawn from the province’s young men, though it did not explicitly reference the Druze, effectively preventing the entry of external forces into Suwayda. The agreement also included stipulations for interim authorities to secure the Damascus-Suwayda road and to lift the sieges on Suwayda, Jaramana, Sahnaya and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya. The statement sought to reassure an angry and fearful local population about the armed groups surrounding Suwayda, framing their presence as a coordinated measure with Damascus to protect the area from possible attacks.
Underlying causes
The eruption of violence was fuelled by deep-rooted failures of leadership and the authorities’ response, as well as fears among Syrian minorities of their status after Assad. While Druze religious authorities quickly condemned the alleged insult and called for calm, Sunni religious institutions were slower to urge restraint. The state apparatus and media either remained silent or issued weak statements, allowing sectarian hate speech and incitement to spread unchecked. This reinforced mistrust among non-affiliated communities, especially in light of the authorities’ failure to prevent the massacres on the coast. Additional underlying contributing factors include the delayed implementation of meaningful transitional justice and authorities’ inability to regulate extremist militias.
The leadership in Damascus, including Al-Shara’a, has failed to exert unified control over all affiliated armed factions, particularly extremist groups with heavy weaponry. On the ground, local reports indicate inconsistent behaviour by security personnel, with some protecting civilians and others facilitating or participating in violence. As a result, there is a growing disconnect between the authorities’ official rhetoric promoting civil peace and the reality of armed mobilisation against minority communities.
Following prior violence on the coast, local armed groups have become increasingly unwilling to disarm, reflecting a deep erosion of trust in the interim authorities and a widespread belief in the need for self-protection. Any attempt to disarm the Druze through coercion risks deepening this mistrust and jeopardising long-term peace and stability.
Israel’s Destabilising Strategy
Israel has played a strategic and destabilizing role in Syria’s current crisis, actively contributing to the country’s fragmentation. Over the weekend, a series of Israeli airstrikes targeted Damascus and its countryside, Daraa, Quneitra, Hama and Latakia, with the stated aim of protecting Syria’s Druze population. Israeli forces also carried out a strike near the Presidential Palace, a clear message to Shara’a and interim authorities.
While publicly claiming to protect Druze communities through illegal and repeated airstrikes, it is simultaneously inciting sectarian tensions and fear. Its broader strategy centres on narrative manipulation and proxy destabilisation, presenting itself as a stabilising actor while entrenching communal division. Israeli forces are making regular ground incursions into south Syria and conducting strikes that violate Syrian sovereignty, destroy infrastructure, and undermine the possibility of a unified, independent Syrian state.
Risks ahead
While tensions have abated for now, the situation remains highly fragile. Local clashes could rapidly spread to other cities and towns, risking broader sectarian conflict, including in Suwayda, Daraa and mixed areas in Damascus. This could trigger mass civilian displacement and cycles of revenge, severely undermining security and social stability. Widespread violence and societal fragmentation will make national reconstruction, transitional justice, and reconciliation exponentially harder to initiate or sustain. As internal fragmentation deepens, regional actors–particularly Israel–may intensify their military and narrative interventions, further destabilising Syria’s sovereignty and social cohesion.
There is a growing narrative–and genuine concern–among Syrians about the risk of state fragmentation, particularly in relation to emerging calls for greater regional autonomy among some Alawite and Druze actors. The current authorities’ actions, whether intentional or a consequence of broader instability, appear to be enabling this trend. Israel’s actions on the ground are also reinforcing these fears, contributing to a broader sense of territorial unravelling.
Syria has teetered on the brink in recent days, not due to direct military confrontation, but as a result of internal collapse, systemic exclusion and the instrumentalisation of identity. The current wave of sectarian violence is not an isolated incident but a manifestation of unresolved grievances, weak institutions and foreign manipulation. The greatest responsibility lies with those in power, who continue to suppress meaningful inclusion, block transitional justice and rely on international engagement to shore up their authority without addressing public legitimacy. Unless these dynamics are reversed, Syria risks entering a prolonged phase of social implosion and fragmentation. A durable peace requires more than calm: it demands genuine inclusion, equity, and accountability as the foundation of a new political system.
