As Syria’s currency plummets to unprecedented lows, the country is plunging into an ever-deeper economic depression. Despite regime hopes that its readmission to the Arab League would be followed by economic investment from the Gulf, the reality has proven starkly different. Instead, the Syrian pound has collapsed, with Syrians in regime-held areas facing the worst living conditions to date since the onset of the conflict. There have been protests against the regime, but the regime has offered no new solutions. Instead, Damascus continues to reiterate its commitment to the standard playbook of floating the currency while implementing aggressive austerity measures that include cutting subsidies and liberalizing prices. Significantly, there is a growing realization amongst high-level regime loyalists that Bashar al-Assad stands between the country and any viable solution. They have waited patiently, even as the regime’s allies, Iran and Russia, could not, or would not, save the country from economic collapse. And now, rapprochement with the Arab countries has failed to bail them out, suggesting that there is no remaining solution other than sanctions relief by the west and institutional financial support. However, insiders appear to be realizing that as long as Assad remains at the helm and entrenched in his intransigence against a political solution, Syria will simply fall further towards all-out state collapse.
Unprecedented Currency Collapse & Dire Living Conditions
The Syrian pound reached an unprecedented low, losing 50% of its value between January and July 2023. Since Syria’s return to the Arab League in May 2023 alone, the Syrian currency has depreciated by more than 35%—a reminder that while the regime harbored expectations of impending investment from the Gulf, that has not come to fruition.
Syrians are facing the worst living conditions to date since the onset of the Syrian conflict. While the region suffers scorching temperatures, electricity provision in Damascus barely reaches 1.5 hours per day, also resulting in reduced water provision. Scarcity of basic goods is increasing, apart from their skyrocketing prices, as tradesmen are reluctant to sell their products at a loss with the currency depreciating so dramatically. Expectations are for growing strikes by shopkeepers unwilling to sell goods at such huge losses, creating further scarcity, driving up prices and frustration. Notably, the prices of basic consumer goods in Syria have become higher than most neighboring countries. The average public sector salary is now worth half what it was earlier this year, barely the equivalent of $12. As prices continue to soar, that amount fails to cover an average household’s expenses for one day, let alone one month.
Devastating living conditions have triggered widespread anger and some scattered protests—almost unseen in regime-held areas. In southeastern Damascus’ Jaramana, home to Christian and Druze religious minorities, residents reportedly protested and chanted in the street in a purported demo over socio-economic conditions. Some are even reported to have shouted the “people demand the downfall of the regime,” harkening back to the popular protest slogan from 2011. Protests were also reported in Tartous, a regime heartland on the Syrian coast, however, security forces there managed to calm down the situation and appease people’s anger without resorting to arrests.
Unprecedented Currency Collapse & Dire Living Conditions
The Syrian pound reached an unprecedented low, losing 50% of its value between January and July 2023. Since Syria’s return to the Arab League in May 2023 alone, the Syrian currency has depreciated by more than 35%—a reminder that while the regime harbored expectations of impending investment from the Gulf, that has not come to fruition.
Syrians are facing the worst living conditions to date since the onset of the Syrian conflict. While the region suffers scorching temperatures, electricity provision in Damascus barely reaches 1.5 hours per day, also resulting in reduced water provision. Scarcity of basic goods is increasing, apart from their skyrocketing prices, as tradesmen are reluctant to sell their products at a loss with the currency depreciating so dramatically. Expectations are for growing strikes by shopkeepers unwilling to sell goods at such huge losses, creating further scarcity, driving up prices and frustration. Notably, the prices of basic consumer goods in Syria have become higher than most neighboring countries. The average public sector salary is now worth half what it was earlier this year, barely the equivalent of $12. As prices continue to soar, that amount fails to cover an average household’s expenses for one day, let alone one month.
Devastating living conditions have triggered widespread anger and some scattered protests—almost unseen in regime-held areas. In southeastern Damascus’ Jaramana, home to Christian and Druze religious minorities, residents reportedly protested and chanted in the street in a purported demo over socio-economic conditions. Some are even reported to have shouted the “people demand the downfall of the regime,” harkening back to the popular protest slogan from 2011. Protests were also reported in Tartous, a regime heartland on the Syrian coast, however, security forces there managed to calm down the situation and appease people’s anger without resorting to arrests.
Political Frustration & Lack of Solutions
In response to the currency’s collapse, the Syrian People’s Assembly held an emergency session on 24 July but failed to decide on, let alone discuss, any possible solutions to the current crisis. Hopes for a strong position from the People’s Assembly were dashed when a “no confidence” vote was quashed, leaving many Syrians even more disappointed and frustrated.
Prime Minister Hussein Arnous’ remarks during the emergency session were taken to be non-conciliatory, after he scolded members of the assembly (and the country) for their impatience and lack of understanding for the complexity of the situation, resulting in some members leaving the session early. Arnous reiterated that the regime will continue to pursue the same policies that it has been implementing for years now: floating the Syrian pound, lifting subsidies, liberalizing commodity prices and scaling back state employment policies. However, none of these measures addresses the root causes of the economic malaise that has gripped the country with rampant corruption, extortion and monopolization by the regime and its cronies; the collapse of basic services at the expense of industrial production; and the flight of much-needed private capital.
With regional rapprochement having done nothing to reel the country back, neither Arab countries nor the regime’s allies, Iran and Russia, can rescue Syria from the worsening economic malaise. More and more influential Damascenes are becoming emboldened to lay the blame for the crisis squarely at Assad’s doorstep—a longstanding red line that shielded Assad from criticism throughout the post-2011 uprising and ensuing conflict.
