Syria Military Brief: South Syria – July 2023

This reporting period covers the month of July.

After concluding its settlement drive in Daraa province last month, the regime has since extended the same process to neighboring Quneitra. This ongoing settlement initiative follows a pattern similar to previous rounds, aimed at improving the regime’s international image and creating an illusion of political progress. However, most individuals participating in this process are in fact driven by a desire to obtain travel documents in order to flee the country rather than any genuine interest in reconciling with the regime. The region is facing near-total paralysis impacting a number of production and commercial sectors, primarily due to the collapse of the Syrian pound and a decline in government-provided services. Even the issuance of passports has stalled amid shortages of official paper supplies. Skyrocketing fuel prices, especially for gasoline, led to a nearly 30% increase in transportation costs within a week and prompted most government offices to close, as employees could no longer afford the commute to work. Additionally, the region is grappling with acute energy shortages, as daily electricity availability is limited to only 1.5 hours, while fuel prices have reached unprecedented highs.

Attached Map: Recent Developments in South Syria
(For a high-resolution version of this map, please use the form at the bottom of the page)

Regime Activity

Over the course of 20 days, regime forces launched several operations in and around the city of Tafas, leading to clashes with local groups. The operations saw the regime deploy several drone strikes for the first time in months. The regime’s primary goals were to expand regime power in the area, establishing new military points while providing a distraction from the regime’s inaction on narcotics smuggling. Consistent with the regime’s regular lexicon, it pitches such operations as “counter-terrorism” efforts, when in practice they are part of the standard policy playbook to further dominate the south through draconian security measures that include restricting civilian freedoms there.

The regime concluded a brief settlement campaign in Quneitra province that ran from 23rd to 29th July. Some 1,400 young men in total participated, bringing the final count of individuals who have completed settlement procedures in Quneitra province to nearly 3,500 young men. Regime settlement of status procedures have proven to fall short of offering civilians adequate protection guarantees. Thousands in south Syria were arbitrarily arrested after previous settlement campaigns. Most young men only participate in hopes of obtaining the necessary travel documents to flee Syria. Their efforts are hampered by the country’s mounting economic crisis, which has caused shortages in the official paper supply. Meanwhile, regime forces expelled more than 30 farmers from their land in the eastern Daraa countryside.

Arrests & Releases

In exchange for a $3,000 bribe, regime forces released a former Daraa opposition member after nearly one year in detention. Military Police patrols were deployed in Quneitra in search of young men wanted for compulsory military service, and more than 20 individuals were arrested and transferred in the process.

Iranian-Backed Militias

The Israeli military launched an artillery attack on 25th July that targeted a regime outpost in northern rural Quneitra. An Israeli patrol also opened fire with heavy machine guns in the same area. The number of casualties resulting from the attack remains unknown. 

Meanwhile, vehicles affiliated with Lebanese Hezbollah were seen entering northern Quneitra and transporting several Hezbollah leaders. Other visits by Hezbollah leaders took place in western Suwayda and eastern Daraa. Iranian-backed militias, and Hezbollah in particular, continue to maintain a presence and freedom of movement in this sensitive area, in proximity to the occupied Golan Heights.

Drug Smuggling

Brigadier-General Ibrahim al-Wa’ri was promoted in early July from deputy head of Military Intelligence to head commander for regime forces in southern Syria, and is expected to play a major role in the military affairs of Daraa, Suwayda and Quneitra provinces moving forward. Brigadier-General Kamal al-Hassan has replaced al-Wa’ri at Military Intelligence and is currently responsible for the “narcotics file” in Syria.

The area around the Nassib border crossing continues to be a flash point between 8th Brigade forces and smugglers, with armed clashes erupting periodically between the two sides. The 8th Brigade is a former armed opposition group operating in the south, and is currently the primary actor within Syria working to combat drug smuggling. Calls by the 8th Brigade for regime forces to assist in anti-smuggling operations continue to go unheeded. The regime’s security apparatuses have strong ties to the drugs trade in Syria, so genuine cooperation between the groups on combating smuggling is unlikely in the future.

Instability in South Syria

An absence of law and order continues across much of southern Syria, with rampant criminality and instances of extortion reported regularly in Daraa and Quneitra provinces. The regime, which nominally retook the south in 2018, leverages the disarray to its benefit: the firm presence of extremist groups there allows Damascus to maintain a strong military presence along the border area. The number of attacks against regime forces and local authority figures across southern Syria has risen sharply in recent weeks, much of it driven by a surge in clandestine ISIS and HTS activity. The area of greatest tension has been along the Damascus-Daraa international highway, which has witnessed a series of explosions and targeted attacks. At least four regime forces were killed and a dozen injured from a series of IED attacks across Quneitra and Daraa provinces over the course of the month.

Regime forces suffered seven armed attacks in recent weeks, with most targeting checkpoints, resulting in the deaths of at least three soldiers and the injury of five others. Targeted killings have continued at elevated levels over the past month across south-west Syria. Assassinations claimed the lives of over 21 individuals, among them civilians, regime soldiers, Military Intelligence officers, former opposition leaders, HTS members, drug traffickers and a police officer. Additionally, dozens of other assassination attempts were recorded across the region.

Humanitarian Developments

An absence of law and order continues across much of southern Syria, with rampant criminality and instances of extortion reported regularly in Daraa and Quneitra provinces. The regime, which nominally retook the south in 2018, leverages the disarray to its benefit: the firm presence of extremist groups there allows Damascus to maintain a strong military presence along the border area. The number of attacks against regime forces and local authority figures across southern Syria has risen sharply in recent weeks, much of it driven by a surge in clandestine ISIS and HTS activity. The area of greatest tension has been along the Damascus-Daraa international highway, which has witnessed a series of explosions and targeted attacks. At least four regime forces were killed and a dozen injured from a series of IED attacks across Quneitra and Daraa provinces over the course of the month.

Regime forces suffered seven armed attacks in recent weeks, with most targeting checkpoints, resulting in the deaths of at least three soldiers and the injury of five others. Targeted killings have continued at elevated levels over the past month across south-west Syria. Assassinations claimed the lives of over 21 individuals, among them civilians, regime soldiers, Military Intelligence officers, former opposition leaders, HTS members, drug traffickers and a police officer. Additionally, dozens of other assassination attempts were recorded across the region.