Demonstrations have continued throughout areas controlled by hardline Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now the most enduring protest movement the region has witnessed against the group in its recent history. HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani has so far failed to stop the momentum of the protest movement. Instead, the HTS leadership has increasingly turned to its traditional playbook of intimidation and repression, with dozens of protest organizers arrested. A major escalation of these tactics occurred in early April with the killing of Abu Maria al-Qahtani, a former HTS leader who had a falling out with al-Jolani and was arrested for six months beginning late last year. His death in a suicide blast attack outside Sarmada has been widely interpreted as a warning to anyone considering joining the growing rebellion against al-Jolani’s leadership. With many doubting HTS’ official line that al-Qahtani was killed by ISIS cells, the assassination has served as further fuel for the increasing size and scope of demonstrations.
HTS Developments
Widespread public protests against Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have continued unabated, with crowds demanding the removal of HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani from power and the dissolution of HTS’ security apparatus. In response to the protests, HTS has begun targeting key activists and organizers through scattered arrests or actual attacks. The group also launched wide-scale arrests around Batbu, Dana, Halazoun, Ma’arat Misrin, Sarmada and Termanin. This security campaign remains unacknowledged officially by HTS, which has framed its operations in these areas as targeting ISIS cells supposedly implicated in the assassination of al-Qahtani. However, its targets have been active figures in the anti-HTS protest movement. At least 27 people have been detained so far.
Senior HTS commander Abu Maria al-Qahtani, an Iraqi national, died shortly after a suicide blast struck his guesthouse near Sarmada in northern Idlib on 4th April. Al-Qahtani fell out with the HTS leadership in late 2023 and spent six months in prison before being released amid the wave of protests against HTS earlier this year. Although HTS officials have claimed the attack was directed by ISIS cells, his assassination has been widely seen as an attempt to intimidate HTS factions either weighing support for the protestors or a future break from the HTS leadership.
Russian & Regime Activity
Regime forces and affiliated militias have stepped up regular barrages of machine-gun fire, guided missiles and artillery strikes against opposition-held areas in recent weeks, targeting a range of civilian sites across southern Idlib, western Hama, northern Latakia and western Aleppo provinces. In total, dozens of bombardments last month killed eight people and seriously wounded at least 22, although the true total is suspected to be far higher. Most of these victims were women and children.
The role of suicide drones also continues to expand in north-west Syria as inexpensive, Iranian-designed weapons have come to constitute a growing share of attacks launched by the regime and allied militias against opposition-held areas. In April, suicide drone attacks struck sites in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama.
Radical Activity
Radical groups in north-west Syria attempted several infiltrations into regime-held territory, albeit with less frequency than in previous months. Members of the radical Fateh al-Mabin operations room crossed frontlines and attacked regime forces in north-west Hama’s Sahel al-Ghab, injuring several troops. Fateh al-Mabin snipers also recorded hits against 18 regime troops, with kills claimed in Idlib and western Aleppo.
Turkish/SDF conflict
The long-running conflict between Turkey and the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has continued to roil north-west Syria and frequently erupt into exchanges of cross-border violence. Turkish forces have launched several suicide drone and artillery attacks against SDF targets in recent weeks, striking sites in northern Aleppo province. In response, the SDF launched artillery strikes on the SNA-controlled towns of Azaz, Al-Bab and Marea.
