Since mid-April, regime forces have closed the only desert road linking regime-controlled areas to Rukban camp, a desert settlement of up to 8,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) close to the Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi border triangle. Although regime forces have restricted food supplies to Rukban before, residents inside the camp attest this is the longest—and most dangerous—blockade to date. Essential food items and medicines have disappeared from camp stores, and bakeries are functioning at half capacity.
Unless the regime and its allies reopen smuggling routes into Rukban and/or urgent humanitarian aid is allowed to enter the camp via other routes, vulnerable civilians in the camp—including thousands of children—will be forced to live with serious food scarcity that, if left unresolved, could lead to widespread hunger and the myriad individual and epidemic health risks this can pose.
Although ad hoc influxes of humanitarian aid late last year demonstrated the power that outside assistance can provide to Rukban’s residents, more forward-thinking aid deliveries that prioritise resilience programming rather than step-by-step humanitarian handouts could begin to alleviate the situation and reduce the camp’s reliance on smuggling routes that ultimately survive based on the tolerance and say-so of the regime’s security apparatus.
Humanitarian Conditions
The longest-ever complete closure of smuggling routes into Rukban camp has left up to 8,000 IDPs at risk of prolonged, severe food scarcity in a way not seen since the camp first formed in 2014. Despite dire warnings about humanitarian conditions in the past, the current unavailability of basic foodstuffs and fuel in the camp is unprecedented—with widespread hunger a real threat if smuggling routes remain closed or a delivery of aid does not reach the camp. Several camp residents are facing critical medical conditions that require immediate access to hospitalized medical care beyond the capabilities of the locally-run basic medical clinic. The UN-run clinic that used to service camp residents shutdown during the start of the Coronavirus pandemic and remains closed.
Essential food items and medicines have disappeared from camp stores with smuggling routes cut off. This is not a case of previously commonplace items being harder or more expensive to find; they are simply not available anymore. Bakeries in Rukban are now functioning at half capacity as they near the end of yeast stocks provided by the US-based Syrian Emergency Task Force (SETF) several months ago. Bread production will stop altogether if Rukban’s yeast supply runs out.
Although price monitoring throughout May points to some increases in prices since the beginning of the month, at the time writing this report, many essential goods are unavailable altogether. Camp residents are now relying on dried goods for sustenance; vegetables and other items essential to stable, healthy diets have been missing for days—if not weeks.
To offset these shortages, camp residents initially started relying on animal products (such as meat and milk) sourced from sheep and goats in grazing areas within the 55km zone. However, concurrent diesel shortages are now making it more difficult to transport animals and/or by-products into the camp. As and when these last lifeline supplies become untenable, camp residents will face unprecedented food scarcity and the very real risk of malnutrition or hunger. Local sources have noted several critical medical cases, including five people in critical conditions–including children–who require urgent transfer to a hospital to undergo surgical operations.
Ongoing Blockade
The road linking regime areas in the southern Badia (desert) and Rukban camp, which is relied upon to smuggle supplies to the camp, was closed by regime forces on 17th April. There are several possible explanations for the extended closure. Some open-source reports blame a dispute between Military Intelligence and Air Force Intelligence over cross-line smuggling revenues. Others point to regime attempts to coerce returns of Rukban’s IDPs back into regime-held area, likely as a way of pressuring fighters from the US-backed New Syria Forces, to leave as well. One way this may be done is through regime claims of ISIS infiltration within the area.
Either way, the latest regime maneuvers take place within a broader geo-political stand-off involving the regime and Russia on one hand and the US-led Coalition and New Syria Forces in the 55-kilometer zone on the other—with the regime and all its backers keen to see Al-Tanf garrison dismantled and regime control of the border restored.
Military Intelligence is responsible for regime checkpoints around the 55km zone and therefore controls the camp’s access to goods coming from regime areas. At regime checkpoints, vehicles undergo inspections, and bribes are dispersed. This multi-step system provides ample opportunity for regime forces to cut off food and other supplies heading towards Rukban when it is deemed expedient. Regime forces do not appear to be mobilizing in concert with the blockade, and the security situation inside the camp is stable. However, anxiety and confusion are spreading among camp residents about what future lies ahead.
Background
Situated in a desolate expanse of desert close to the border triangle between Syria, Jordan and Iraq, Rukban camp sits within a 55-kilometer “deconfliction zone” that also comprises the Al-Tanf base operated by the US-led Coalition and New Syria Forces (formerly known as Jaysh Maghawir al-Thawra). Encircled by blockading regime forces who refuse to admit UN aid deliveries, up to 8,000 IDPs in Rukban have for years been forced to eke out a harsh existence reliant on limited supplies smuggled in from regime-held areas.
The regime has restricted or manipulated the entry of goods into Rukban camp many times in the past, however people inside the camp attest this is the longest and most serious blockade to date. Admittedly, it is difficult to parse exact timelines as well as the varying definitions of “siege” used inside and outside the camp, but an analysis of humanitarian conditions does suggest that the situation in the camp is deteriorating rapidly and worse than previous periods of serious crises, such as in 2019, when the regime allowed a cross-line aid delivery by the UN to reach the camp.