In late March, a massive three-pronged Israeli aerial attack struck Iranian militia-linked sites in and around the city of Aleppo, killing at least 44 individuals—including 36 regime troops and seven Hezbollah fighters—and causing significant damage to several Syrian-Iranian weapons development and storage sites. Elsewhere, an unprecedented protest movement has continued to grow across opposition-held areas of Idlib and western Aleppo, with demonstrators calling for the ouster of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani and the dismantling of his powerful security apparatus. Following revelations of torture and extrajudicial killings stemming from the group’s repressive security crackdown last year, protestors have taken to the streets for more than six weeks without drawing a heavy-handed response from HTS—likely a sign of how perilous al-Jolani perceives this moment to be. With the continuation of internal unrest within Idlib, HTS’ leadership is also keeping a wary eye on its eastern border with territories controlled by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), fearing that its rivals may seek to launch a surprise attack during the hardline group’s moment of weakness.
Israeli Airstrikes
A three-pronged Israeli aerial attack on 29th March targeted several Iranian-linked sites around the city of Aleppo, resulted in a significant number of casualties. All the sites hit in the attacks were linked with Syrian-Iranian weapons production and/or storage projects. At least 44 are confirmed dead so far, including 36 regime troops and seven Hezbollah fighters. While Israeli forces have noticeably ramped-up airstrikes against Iranian-linked sites in Syria since 7th October, the Aleppo attack represents one of the deadliest Israeli strikes in the country since the outbreak of spillover hostilities following Hamas’ attack.
In another attack earlier in March, Israeli aircraft targeted a farm near the coastal Latakia city of Baniyas. Iranian media reports indicated that an Iranian military advisor was killed in the airstrike along with an undisclosed number of Hezbollah members.
HTS Developments
Protests against Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have now continued for more than a month, with demonstrations spreading across Idlib province and into HTS-governed areas of the western Aleppo countryside. This unprecedented display of dissent has seen protesters demanding the immediate removal of HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani and the dismantling of the group’s security apparatus, which is blamed for the months-long crackdown that has seen hundreds of HTS members and civilians incarcerated. Following explosive revelations of torture and extrajudicial executions by HTS that emerged last month, these demands have coalesced with a growing sense of fury over HTS’ economic and administrative policies, which have seen prices of most goods skyrocket at a far faster rate than in other regions.
HTS officials have made public announcements regarding structural changes within HTS, including the establishment of a new security oversight body and economic committees. To placate angry members of HTS’ military wing, the leader has also granted a general amnesty to detainees caught up in the earlier security crackdown. On the other hand, al-Jolani has also issued direct threats against dissenters while organizing pro-HTS rallies.
With internal unrest in Idlib ongoing, HTS’ leadership is also keeping a wary eye on eastern areas bordering territory controlled by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), fearing that its rivals may seek to launch a surprise attack during the hardline group’s moment of weakness.
Russian & Regime Activity
Regime forces and affiliated militias have continued to regularly target sites across the opposition-held north-west, striking a range of civilian sites in Idlib province including schools, medical facilities and a marketplace. Artillery barrages and machine-gun fire were recorded in more than 50 towns during the month of March. At least one child was killed, and four others wounded.
A brief increase in the number of Russian airstrikes in early March tapered off later in the month. During that uptick in aerial bombardments, Russian warplanes repeatedly struck parts of northern Latakia and western Idlib.
Regime forces and allied Iranian-backed militias have meanwhile continued to aggressively expand their use of suicide drones. Across March, dozens of suicide drones were launched against sites in the western Hama countryside, northern Latakia, western Aleppo and Idlib. Collectively, these attacks killed at least two civilians and wounded two others.
Radical Activity
HTS has significantly ratcheted up ground operations against regime forces in recent weeks, carrying out raids and infiltration attempts multiple times per week in Aleppo, Idlib and Latakia. Units affiliated with the hardline group carried out raids against regime military points in rural Idlib, western Aleppo and northern Latakia. HTS claimed it killed more than 33 regime soldiers during these operations. The group also suffered an undisclosed number of casualties among its ranks during the infiltration attempts.
A massive car bomb explosion rocked a busy marketplace in the opposition-held town of Azaz, close to the Syrian-Turkish border, resulting in the death of at least seven people and the injury of at least 30 others. The blast struck during peak late-night shopping hours, following the evening iftar meal to break the Ramadan fast. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the blast.
The radical Fateh al-Mabin operations room continued its regular operations against regime forces, including regularly shelling pro-regime positions with guided missile strikes in northern Latakia and southern Idlib. Additionally, the group’s snipers recorded hits against 11 pro-regime troops.
At least seven members of the regime’s National Defense Forces (NDF) militia were killed during a surprise ambush in the Tal Salameh area near eastern Hama’s Duwizeen on 7th March. ISIS cell members are believed to be behind these attacks.
