A significant aerial attack, suspected to be Israeli, targeted an array of key Iranian-linked sites across north-east Syria in late March. Taking place days before major Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Damascus and Aleppo, the strikes targeted a militia headquarters in Al-Bukamal, several Iranian-owned buildings in Deir Ezzor city and the Ayyash warehouses just outside the city. Meanwhile, in the sparsely populated Badia desert region, ISIS attacks against regime forces have declined markedly following the highs of previous months, even with the onset of the annual truffle-hunting season that usually sees heightened periods of violence. Part of this decline can likely be attributed to regime mobilizations in response to the rising wave of ISIS attacks in recent weeks, creating a deterrent for local extremist cells for the time being.
Iranian-Backed Militia Activity
A series of massive unclaimed (but suspected Israeli) airstrikes struck an array of locations linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Iranian-backed proxies on 25th March. Major explosions were recorded around three areas: several militia headquarters buildings in Al-Bukamal; a series of buildings in Deir Ezzor city; and the Ayyash warehouses just outside the city, which are often used for storing missiles and other weapons. Most of the reported deaths so far confirmed have been local Syrian members of Iranian-backed militias. Officially, the death toll stands at just six individuals––almost certainly an undercount.
ISIS Activity
While a wave of increased ISIS attacks targeting members of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has continued across north-east Syria, attack numbers have come down slightly from their peak last month. Across March, 15 armed attacks and five IED blasts were recorded in Aleppo, Deir Ezzor, Hasakeh and Raqqa, resulting in the deaths of at least 16 people and dozens of injuries.
ISIS cells also continued to target regime forces and affiliated militias, with attacks centred in the sparsely populated Badia desert region in central and eastern Homs province. During the past month, four armed ambushes and one IED attack claimed the lives of at least six regime troops and injured an unknown number of others. Additionally, three pro-regime troops were killed by landmines believed to have been planted by ISIS.
While attacks on armed groups remain rampant across the north-east, civilians continue to be the primary victims of ISIS attacks in the region. ISIS frequently attacks individuals it accuses of working with the SDF or targets others in remote communities who have refused to pay its “zakat” taxes—often amounting to thousands of dollars—that the group imposes on local families or businesses.
The Badia desert region in Deir Ezzor and Raqqa remains a highly volatile environment for truffle hunters, as competition continues between armed actors manoeuvring to profit from the trade. While casualties have mounted in recent weeks, the overall death toll this year has nonetheless remained smaller than the extraordinary violence witnessed during last year’s season. Landmines laid by ISIS and other militia groups have become a major cause of death for truffle hunters, however, with at least six civilians killed by explosions in recent weeks in the Al-Tibni and Jabal al-Bishri desert in western Deir Ezzor.
SDF Activity
During a 1st March raid backed by US-led Coalition air support, the SDF arrested nine suspected ISIS members in northern Deir Ezzor. Additional raids and arrest campaigns later took place in eastern Deir Ezzor and southern Hasakeh.
The SDF has continued to regularly conduct missions to detain and forcibly recruit military-age males, and school-age minors, into its ranks. Minors between the ages of 14 and 16 were conscripted by the SDF in northern Hasakeh and northeastern Aleppo during recent campaigns.
Several detainees managed to briefly escape from an SDF prison in Raqqa city on 25th March, drawing rounds of live-fire from guards as they fled; at least six detainees were killed 15 others wounded as a result. The SDF rapidly called in reinforcements, who cordoned off the area and managed to recapture all remaining escapees within a matter of hours.
Russian & Regime Activity
Following weeks of high-intensity ISIS attacks and a sharply rising death toll among regime forces and affiliated militias, the regime mobilized several thousand troops and deployed them to positions across the Badia desert. Although the purpose of this mobilization was to limit ISIS attacks and deter the group, the newly deployed units have not yet undertaken any significant anti-ISIS operations. However, the frequency of attacks against regime forces by ISIS cells has decreased since the deployment, suggesting the deterrent may be working for now.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
Landmines continue to pose a major problem for civilians and combatants alike in north-east Syria, regularly inflicting indiscriminate death and injury upon local populations. Aside from the landmine deaths associated with truffle-hunting, more populated areas of Deir Ezzor and Raqqa provinces have also witnessed the deaths of men, women and children as young as age 10 in recent weeks. During the month of March, these landmine blasts claimed the lives of at least four civilians and injured two others.
