The National Dialogue Conference marks the prelude to the transitional government expected to be announced on 1st March in line with the deadline set by HTS-led caretaker authorities. While the conference’s non-binding closing statement called for the creation of a temporary legislative council and the enshrining of political freedoms, the rule of law and human rights in a new, post-Assad constitution, there is concern that the entire process will only serve to provide a veneer of legitimacy for HTS-led authorities’ consolidation of control in the coming phase. Despite caretaker authorities’ lofty rhetoric and declarations, many Syrians are growing frustrated with the lack of a clearly communicated plan and timeline for the transitional process. In south Syria, meanwhile, Israel’s demands for a permanently demilitarized south Syria, along with its intensified military aggression and political meddling in Suwayda, is heightening tensions in what is an already fragile security situation. There are growing concerns over how Israeli aggression and expansionism in violation of Syrian sovereignty could derail prospects for long-term security stability in the region. The next few months will be critical for shaping Syria’s future trajectory: the absence of an inclusive transitional process and failure to establish a security framework in the face of external threats could lead to further fragmentation, instability and domestic unrest.
National Dialogue Conference
The long-awaited National Dialogue Conference concluded in Damascus last week after two days of meetings attended by 600 participants. The conference closed with a non-binding statement, widely believed to have been prepared ahead of time, that called for enshrining freedom of expression, the rule of law and women’s rights and forming a committee to draft a future constitution along those lines. At the same time, the final statement notably omitted reference to democracy, transition of power and the separation of powers, further deepening skepticism about the caretaker authorities’ real political intentions. Despite the symbolic significance of such an event after half a century of repression under the Assad regime, the process has been criticized for being rushed, exclusionary and disingenuous when it comes to paving the path for political transition.
Significantly, no delegations from the Kurdish-led Self Administration or Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were invited to the National Dialogue Conference. Caretaker officials demanded days before the conference that all armed groups in north-east Syria must disband and integrate into the as-yet unformed Syrian army as a pre-condition for participation—essentially demanding the rapid completion of complex and ongoing negotiations between the SDF and caretaker authorities. Similar demands were not raised with other armed groups. Additionally, the Syrian Turkmen Council announced its rejection of the conference due to the exclusion of its members. Notorious Syrian National Army (SNA) figure Muhammad al-Jassem (Abu Amsha), who leads the Turkish-backed Sultan Suleiman Shah faction made up of Turkmen fighters, denounced the preparatory committee’s actions as a “failure.”
Many observers compared preparations for the conference to the past formation of the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib in its favoring of HTS affiliates while ignoring other segments of society—particularly residents of major cities. For example, despite HTS’ weak historical presence in Daraa, the province’s delegation was heavily dominated by HTS insiders. While the final statement of the conference underscored the importance of inclusion and civil rights, its non-binding nature and lack of an explicit democratic timeline make its immediate significance unclear.
Security Dynamics
Security forces launched several raids and operations aimed at capturing former regime elements across the south, including by searching the homes of former Hezbollah affiliates. More than 60 security personnel took part in raids in northern Daraa, with the mayor of Kafr Nasij arrested along with three others for alleged ties to the former regime’s security apparatus. In the north-east, security forces also arrested a major regional drug dealer in Deir Ezzor. In the south, several armed groups announced the formation of the “Suwayda Military Council,” purportedly to coordinate efforts among local factions for security and stability. However, the Joint Operations Room of Suwayda swiftly declared the council illegitimate along with Druze religious leaders, including Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri. The move sparked controversy across Syria, not least because it took place the same week as Israeli statements on Suwayda and regional security.
The US-led International Coalition supported anti-extremist operations in Deir Ezzor and Idlib last week. Supporting the SDF with aircover, Kurdish forces SDF launched several operations in rural Deir Ezzor province to root out and capture ISIS cells. Raids on homes in Al-Izbah, Al-Kishkiyeh and Gharibat al-Sharqiyeh captured three ISIS operatives responsible for planning armed attacks and bombings in the area. Additionally, a drone belonging to the International Coalition targeted a vehicle on the Killi-Kaftin road in northern Idlib, killing Jaafar al-Turki (Abu Hussein), a former leader of extremist Al-Qaeda affiliate Hurras al-Din.
Israeli Attacks & Incursions in South Syria
Hours after caretaker authorities denounced Israeli seizures of Syrian territory and continued operations past the 1974 demilitarized border strip, Israeli forces launched a series of unprovoked airstrikes targeting military sites across Daraa province and in Al-Kisweh in the countryside south of Damascus. The attacks accompanied new threats from Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, who warned the caretaker government not to deploy any troops south of Damascus, demanding that southern provinces remain permanently demilitarized, even as Israeli forces claim they will continue to occupy recently seized territory in Quneitra.
Concurrent with the escalations, Israeli officials are increasingly wading into sensitive negotiations between caretaker authorities in Damascus and the Druze-majority province of Suwayda. Netanyahu stated that Israel would not tolerate “threats” against the Druze in south Syria and warned the Syrian army against deploying in the area. The provocative statements prompted caretaker President Ahmad al-Shara’a to meet with Druze community leaders in Damascus. As a result of Israeli statements and incursions, massive demonstrations erupted across south Syria following the Israeli statements, with thousands protesting in towns across Daraa, Quneitra and Suwayda in opposition to Israeli interference in Syrian affairs. Some also criticized caretaker authorities for not responding more aggressively to Israeli provocations.
Türkiye/SNA & SDF Hostilities in Aleppo & North-East Syria
Clashes continued between the SDF and Turkey and the Turkish-backed SNA factions in eastern and northern Aleppo. Turkish warplanes carried out three airstrikes on SDF positions in Qasaq and Tayara near Ain al-Arab/Kobani, with the SNA launching an attack on SDF positions near the Tishreen Dam that led to fierce ground clashes. Residents nearby are showing resistance to being dragged into further conflict, and staged protests against the SDF’s presence in the area, demanding the group’s withdrawal and the area’s full integration into the Syrian state.
