Throughout October, Israeli forces conducted regular incursions into Syrian-controlled Quneitra, constructing fencing, de-mining and conducting reconnaissance near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. ETANA has documented similar activity since early this year, but the frequency has increased amid rising tensions with Hezbollah. Assad has refrained from responding militarily to these incursions, even in response to Israeli artillery strikes on joint regime-Iranian positions.
Israel’s escalation in Lebanon has displaced tens of thousands, including 35,000 Syrian refugees originally from Daraa province. Many of those surveyed by ETANA expressed their intent to return to the region after crossing back into Syria, but the continued instability in the south—and all of Syria—is a reminder that the country is not safe for returns.
Conflict with Israel
In reports confirmed by Reuters, Israeli forces carried out repeated ground incursions into southern Syria last month. Troops carried out de-mining operations and erected new fencing and earthen barriers inside Syrian territory. Similar operations are not unprecedented—Israeli forces have previously been reported removing trees or digging trenches in Syrian-controlled Quneitra—however, the frequency of incursions has increased throughout the year. Israeli activities inside Syria are ostensibly aimed at improving Israel’s reconnaissance operations in south-west Syria, although Israeli forces have also in some cases fired on anyone approaching the border and arbitrarily detained Syrian citizens in Quneitra before taking them back across the border for interrogations.
ETANA has also documented similar incursions into Quneitra province, noting that in September, Israeli forces were seen constructing new observation posts between Quneitra and the occupied Golan. In response to increased Israeli activity in the area, Syrian regime forces in south Syria were placed on the highest level of combat readiness amid the rapid escalation in Lebanon.
Fearing Israeli targeting, Hezbollah operations have generally declined across south Syria in recent months. Some units have withdrawn entirely from key border regions. At the same time, some groups have continued to spearhead attacks against the Israeli-occupied Golan, with a modest uptick in attacks recorded in October. Iranian-backed militias in south Syria were responsible for launching four missile attacks against Israel last month, but all four were intercepted by Israeli air defences.
The frequency of Israeli attacks against regime and Iranian-backed militia sites has only continued to increase, with airstrikes targeting three air defense points associated with Iranian militias in eastern Daraa. Several regime troops and Hezbollah fighters were killed in these attacks. Israeli forces have also stepped-up regular artillery strikes against several locations, launching hundreds of shells against sites in western Daraa.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
The ongoing Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanon and Beirut has forced tens of thousands to flee to nearby Syria, including at least 35,000 refugees living in Lebanon originally from Daraa. Despite continued hostilities, a small trickle of Syrian migrant workers—estimated to be in the region of around 2,400 people—have begun to return to Lebanon, mainly driven by demands from Lebanese employers and threats that their work contracts will be cancelled otherwise.
So far, regime officials have arrested a handful of former opposition members upon their return to Syria. ETANA now estimates that 130 people have been arbitrarily arrested at crossings or checkpoints in Syria. These numbers are expected to grow in the coming weeks, as regime authorities are more likely to target returnees after they settle in their intended destination. Overall, however, the large-scale displacements of Lebanese refugees and Syrian returnees into Syria do not change the reality on the ground: Syria remains a categorically unsafe returns context.
Meanwhile the regime announced several new governorship appointments, assigning Assad Yazid Tukkan as governor of Daraa, Kamel Abdulrahman Barmo as governor of Hama and Tony Aziz Hanna as governor of Quneitra. The appointment of Hanna, a Christian, is likely meant to appease regional actors concerned about the regime’s sectarian leanings.
Instability in South Syria
South Syria continues to be a spot of instability and violence. Five roadside IED attacks were recorded against regime forces in October, killing five soldiers and seriously wounding at least 10 others along roadways in northern and eastern rural Daraa; another IED blast was recorded in central Daraa city. Regular targeted assassinations have also continued across Daraa and Quneitra, with at least 15 assassination attempts recorded last month. Kidnapping has also risen in the south, with the epicenter of activity in the Al-Lajat region, where dozens of individuals are currently being held by various armed groups.
