Intensifying Israeli attacks on Lebanon are causing a mass displacement crisis that has seen at least 258,000 Lebanese and Syrians cross into Syria to escape bombardment. As many as 70% of those entering Syria are Syrians, according to humanitarian agencies. ETANA estimates that several thousand Syrians returned to Daraa and Quneitra alone from Lebanon in the last week of September. Already, reports reveal the drastic divergence in reception policies for displaced Lebanese and Syrian refugees.
Despite the rapidly spiraling conflict inside Lebanon, Hezbollah appears to have opted not to open a new Syrian front against Israel in the south. The reasons for the group’s muted response to increasing bombardments is best understood by longstanding structural challenges that have hemmed in the group’s operational capacity in the region; an overwhelmingly Sunni population (which is largely hostile to the presence of foreign Hezbollah fighters in their midst); intense 24-hour aerial surveillance by Israelis; and the dependency on the regime’s exposed local military infrastructure that makes Iranian-backed fighters in the area increasingly vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes. Collectively, these factors have forced Hezbollah to fall back on less reliable local affiliates, greatly limiting their capacity to escalate from Syria with any effectiveness, even as they and their allies face severe military setbacks elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the IDF has vastly stepped-up airstrikes across south Syria, targeting seven regime military sites across Quneitra, Rural Damascus and Suwayda. Four sites, consisting of regime military bases known to host Iranian-backed militiamen or commanders and radar stations, were targeted on 1st October alone.
Conflict with Israel
Despite the rapidly escalating conflict on the Lebanese-Israeli border and another major Iranian missile attack from Iran on Israel in September, there has been so far little sign of intensifying activities by Iranian-backed militias in Syria. Even after the recent shock assassination of long-time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, attacks by militant groups in Syria have been limited to small attacks toward the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
In Syria, Israeli forces continued to bombard regime military sites with airstrikes, drone attacks and artillery barrages, with recent operations targeting sites near southern Quneitra and southern Rural Damascus. In one major operation on 1st October, Israeli forces launched simultaneous strikes on four different locations across Rural Damascus and Suwayda provinces. Targets included a regime base in Tal al-Kharouf, Al-Tha’alah Military Airport, Khalkhaleh Military Airport and Tal Zalfa—most of which are linked to Iranian-backed or Hezbollah operations in Syria. Collectively, these strikes killed just one Hezbollah fighter and one Hamas member while also injuring an unknown number of additional fighters.
Israeli ground incursions into Syria’s Quneitra province have vastly increased in frequency and duration, with Israeli troops conducting more operations throughout last month. They have also been observed constructing observation posts between Quneitra and the occupied Golan.
The devastating pager and walkie-talkie detonations that rocked Lebanon in mid-September have also put the regime on high alert. The incident also impacted Hezbollah fighters located in south Syria, with at least nine members transported to military hospitals in Daraa and Quneitra to treat their injuries. In the aftermath, Damascus removed all communications devices from members operating in Quneitra province. The regime has taken additional security measures, including banning soldiers from using mobile devices at military sites in Daraa and Quneitra, preventing troops from taking leave, and prohibiting the present of any Hezbollah flags or symbols inside Daraa province. All of these are likely an attempt to prevent further Israeli strikes, rather than signaling any distancing between Damascus and Tehran—or Hezbollah.
Following the pager attacks, rumors began to swirl about massive Hezbollah deployments from Syria—all of which have been largely exaggerated and likely intended to justify further Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. In late September, Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz, citing anonymous Israeli military sources, claimed 40,000 Iranian-backed militia fighters had recently deployed near the occupied Golan. These numbers are false; in fact, ETANA has recorded a notable deployment of Hezbollah forces away from the border strip.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
As of 8th October, at least 258,000 displaced Syrians and Lebanese have crossed into Syria. In the last week of September alone, several thousand Syrians returned to Daraa and Quneitra. Lebanese refugees entering Syria have been given relatively unimpeded access to Syrian territory, while Syrians have had to pay a $100 entry fee levied by Syrian border authorities since 2020. Following Israeli airstrikes on 4th October against the Al-Masna’a border crossing—the primary route for civilians crossing into Syria from Lebanon—Damascus temporarily waived the fee, but authorities have since required Syrians, but not Lebanese, passing through Al-Masna’a to provide identification.
Syrian refugees who remain in Lebanon are also not safe: in a single attack on 25th September, 23 Syrian refugees were killed by an Israeli airstrike on Baalbek in the northern Beqaa Valley. Local reports indicate that many of those who have fled the south are subject to discrimination by local communities, and are frequently denied entry to safe shelters.
Displacements are taking place further afield, as well. As the final window for calmer Mediterranean crossings draws to a close before the beginning of inclement autumn and winter weather, more than 1,400 people from south-west Syria reached Italy and Greece in recent weeks. Attempts at the treacherous sea journey have reached a yearly high, and at least 118 Syrians from Daraa and Quneitra lost their lives or have gone missing during these crossings. Around 4,800 others from the region are in Libya awaiting transport.
Pro-Regime Activity
Russian forces have continued to regularly patrol northern and southern Quneitra, with an uptick in the frequency of patrols accompanying the escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah since late September. Russia was also observed building a new observation point along the border strip with the occupied Golan, presumably to curtail attacks between Israeli and Iranian-backed militias.
Instability in South Syria
The poor state of local law and order has continued to decline despite these efforts, with security entirely absent from large stretches of south Syria as armed groups continue to prey on local communities. Assassinations and attempted killings continue to target public figures, armed groups members and civilians across south-west Syria. In recent weeks, assassinations claimed the lives of at least 19 individuals, among them Political Security officers, drug traffickers, Hezbollah fighters, former opposition members, the head of the local agricultural association, Military Intelligence officers and civilians. Following the entry of displaced Lebanese into Syria, armed individuals in Daraa city issued an order calling for their expulsion from the area.
Dozens of kidnapping attempts were reported in September, as armed groups continue to target individuals ranging from civilians to drug traffickers and political leaders to secure ransom money or as a pressure tactic. The nexus of these kidnapping operations continues to be the countryside between eastern Daraa and Al-Lajat.
Regular armed attacks have continued to target regime troops, with northern and eastern Daraa the epicenter of anti-regime operations in recent weeks. During the month of September, at least eight armed attacks struck regime units killing four soldiers. Five roadside bomb attacks were also recorded against regime forces in recent weeks, killing one soldier and wounding at least six civilians near Daraa city and in the northern Daraa countryside.
