In an almost unprecedented display of dissent against HTS, hundreds of protesters took to the streets for several days in Idlib city and other areas to condemn a longstanding security campaign that has seen hundreds arrested since last year. More worrying for HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, however, is the rising anger coming from within his group’s own military wing: critical HTS commanders are increasingly pushing for an end to the expansive security campaign led by al-Jolani’s security chief, Abu Ahmad al-Hudoud. At the same time, anger over this campaign is coalescing with widespread public frustration about corruption and economic mismanagement in HTS-held areas, which have helped plunge areas of the north-west into an acute inflationary crisis. So far, HTS’ leadership have resisted calls to release a statement on the campaign, or to remove al-Hudoud. While al-Jolani’s grip on power does not appear to be in immediate jeopardy, his leadership is at its most perilous moment since the foundation of Jabhat al-Nusra—the Al-Qaeda-linked forerunner to HTS—more than a decade ago. Aware of HTS’ internal turmoil, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) has meanwhile begun to bolster crossing points adjacent to HTS-held territory and cut off informal backroads linking the two areas of control, likely with the aim of curtailing HTS’ ability to mobilize against the SNA in any future conflict.
Attached Map:
Military Developments in North-West Syria
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HTS Divisions & Factional Developments
Last year, HTS launched an intensive, months-long security campaign to supposedly route out espionage. The campaign grew increasingly unpopular within the group’s ranks following months of arrests, interrogations, and disappearances. In late February, HTS members discovered that some detainees had been subjected to severe—and in some cases, fatal—torture, sparking immediate outrage within the group.
The revelations also sparked an extremely rare wave of public demonstrations against HTS across Idlib province. In addition to demanding the release of detainees, protesters denounced the group’s poor leadership, many believing that the surging cost of living in Idlib has only been worsened by the group’s corruption and mismanagement. Public demonstrations drew hundreds of people to the streets in Idlib city as well as Binnish, Hazano and Sarmada; some included open calls for the removal of al-Jolani himself and the disbanding of his security services. HTS’ leadership refrained from violently reining-in protests, but fear of reprisals and back-channel threats ultimately led the demonstrations to subside within a few days.
While the public protests received a great amount of attention, the greatest emerging threat to al-Jolani’s leadership is the rising anger among HTS’ military wing. Under extreme pressure from this group—and recognizing the extreme volatility of his situation—al-Jolani has ordered his security chiefs to release the vast majority of those detained in the crackdown.
Russian & Regime Activity
Regime forces and affiliated militias regularly targeted villages across the north-west, striking a range of civilian infrastructure in southern Idlib, western Hama and eastern Aleppo last month. At least five civilians were killed, and several others wounded, in these attacks, most of them women and children.
While Russian air raids declined somewhat, regime forces and their Iranian-backed militia allies ramped-up the use of drones—including Iranian-made “suicide drones”—in the north-west. Regime units targeted military sites in the Idlib countryside, killing at least four opposition fighters, and struck areas in the Hama countryside, wounding three civilians.
Radical Activity
The radical Fateh al-Mabin operations room regularly shelled pro-regime positions with barrages of artillery shells and missile strikes in the southern Idlib countryside. Additional mortar attacks struck pro-regime forces in the southern Idlib countryside, northern Latakia and the northern Aleppo countryside.
Turkish-Backed Activity
Watching the internal turmoil within HTS unfold, Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) have begun to bolster positions adjacent to HTS-held territory. Additionally, drone strikes repeatedly targeted SDF military points to the north of Aleppo while Turkish artillery bombard SDF positions south of Afrin and in north-east Aleppo province.
Humanitarian Developments
While the prices of basic goods and commodities continue to rise across all parts of north-west Syria, the severity of the situation in HTS-controlled Idlib stands apart because of the severity of spiraling inflation rates there. HTS has pursued many policies that mirror the corrupt practices of the Assad regime, implementing monopolistic practices over many essential products and imposing taxes on virtually all commercial activities. Swelling public anger and several days of public protests in February forced HTS to grant minor concessions, most notably by reducing electricity prices. However, the group shows no signs of reforming its predatory economic model, which is crucial to funding HTS’ activities and ensuring its continued domination in Idlib.