After two months of quiet in south-west Syria, Hezbollah and Liwa al-Quds resumed launches of Grad missiles and suicide drone attacks against the Israel-occupied Golan Heights. On the afternoon of 27th July, a rocket launched by Hezbollah from south Lebanon landed on a football field in the center of Majdal Shams, killing more than a dozen civilians (most of them children and teenagers).
A long-standing conflict flared anew between feuding local groups in the northern Daraa city of Jassim, resulting in six deaths and at least 1,300 people fleeing the area. After a week of continuous clashes, hundreds of fighters from Ahmad al-Awdeh’s forces entered the city to separate the warring factions. The incident reveals the regime’s fundamental lack of security control in the province on the one hand and al-Awdeh’s groups’ continued role in mediating local conflicts—even outside their primary zone of influence in eastern Daraa.
Meanwhile, the 2024 parliamentary vote in the south was defined by mass boycotts and historically low turnout figures. The elections yielded no significant changes in the distribution of seats in parliament in keeping with the theatrical, pre-planned nature of elections under Bashar al-Assad.
Conflict with Israel
The relative quiet in border regions of south-west Syria came to an end on 4th July with the launch of three Grad missiles by Iranian-backed militia Liwa al-Quds towards the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Over the following fortnight, four other attacks by Hezbollah targeted the Golan from positions in Daraa. No casualties were reported in either case.
On 27th July, a rocket launched by Hezbollah from south Lebanon landed on a football pitch in the center of Majdal Shams in the northern occupied Golan Heights, killing more than a dozen civilians (most of them children and teenagers) and injuring 28 others. Despite initially announcing a rocket launch in the area, Hezbollah quickly denied its forces fired the rocket responsible for the attack. While there are several Israeli military facilities around Majdal Shams that could have been the intended target, it is highly unlikely that Hezbollah deliberately targeted the town itself. The group has worked hard in recent years to alleviate tensions with Lebanon’s Druze community, while a direct attack on a Syrian Druze community living under Israeli occupation could undermine Hezbollah politically.
Violence in Jassim
A long-standing conflict between local armed groups in the city of Jassim erupted into a serious bout of clashes between groups led by Wael al-Jallam and Tawfiq al-Halaqi, which intensified after the assassination of Abdullah Ismail al-Halaqi in early July. A week of spiraling, tit-for-tat violence between the two sides intensified with the use of heavy weapons and at least six deaths, in addition to numerous injuries. At least 1,300 people fled the area as the violence expanded. Although both the Houran Reconciliation Committee and local community leaders attempted to mediate a solution, both sides rejected these efforts. In mid-July, hundreds of Ahmad al-Awdeh’s forces entered the town, in addition to units from the regime’s 9th Division, setting up checkpoints to separate the two sides and halt the clashes.
Extremist Activity
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-linked militants are responsible for a recent string of bombings and attacks across south-west Syria. Replicating similar attacks from last month, HTS fighters detonated explosives at a busy wedding venue in Inkhil.
Instability in South Syria
Parts of rural northern and western Daraa, where regime patrols and convoys regularly travel, are quickly becoming notable epicenters for attacks on regime troops. Last month, at least one soldier was killed and four others injured over a series of four armed attacks. In addition, the south is witnessing a sharp rise in assassinations that are increasingly targeting public figures, members of armed groups and civilians. At least 38 individuals were killed last month, among them, drug smugglers, regime fighters, and former ISIS operatives.
Meanwhile, criminal incidents such as robberies, car jackings and communal violence have become the norm across much of the region—a situation greatly worsened by the fact that regime units and local authorities are directly responsible for driving much of the lawlessness. Armed groups continued frequent kidnapping operations across south-west Syria, abducting individuals either to profit from ransoms or to exact revenge or political leverage. Daraa al-Mahatta has witnessed a sharp escalation in kidnapping incidents, with multiple operations recorded every week.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
The regime’s push to hold nationwide parliamentary elections concluded without major security incidents on 15th July, although the vote in the south was ultimately defined by widespread boycotts and low turnout. Most municipalities in south-west Syria boycotted the vote—a reflection of widespread cynicism and anger against the theatrical, patently undemocratic process. Nearly 100 out of 131 municipalities across Daraa province boycotted the elections; local observers estimated that barely 30,000 people turned out to vote in Daraa city—a fraction of the nearly 200,000 voters claimed by regime officials. Even these numbers were driven in part by votes from public employees, who are generally required to show up at polls through state coercion.
