Syria’s transition from 50 years of Assad regime rule to an uncertain future under HTS and former opposition factions was never going to be smooth. In the days since the regime’s collapse, cases of looting targeting both military and civilian sites—including regime bases, the Central Bank and Presidential Palace—have broken out in Damascus. Security forces affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other factions have been seen patrolling the streets and attempting to maintain order.
An unexpected added source of instability has been the massive, unprovoked Israeli military campaign launched across the country. An unprecedented wave of aerial bombardments pulverized Syrian military stocks and infrastructure, destroying the vast majority of the country’s tanks and anti-aircraft and missile systems.
SDF rule across the north-east is now under threat, as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is advancing further into north-east Syria with the support of Turkish airstrikes. Their forces withdrew from Deir Ezzor city shortly after seizing it from withdrawing regime forces last week. Now, the SDF are now facing protests in Raqqa now demanding their withdrawal.
Governance & Security in Damascus
Although an array of armed groups coordinated to liberate Damascus, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has emerged in a clearly dominant position. This is primarily due to the group’s superior numbers of fighters, which dwarf the ranks of other factions, as well as its experience with regional governance in Idlib, where the HTS-affiliated Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) has managed municipal services, security and bureaucratic fairs for several years—albeit on a much smaller scale.
HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara’ (formerly known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani) has expressed plans to establish a technocratic government, with the existing transitional administration scheduled to remain in place until March 2025. Even so, the appointment of SSG ministers (including former SSG leader and now interim Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad al-Bashir) is raising concerns that HTS plans to directly replicate the SSG on a grander scale in Damascus. The appearance of newly appointed ministers in front of the revolutionary flag and HTS’ factional flag has done little to assuage these concerns.
Israeli Attacks, Occupation of Syrian Territory
Immediately after Assad’s fall, Israel launched a massive military campaign against all military assets on Syrian territory, all while breaching the 1974 demilitarization agreement between the two countries and seizing further swathes of territory along the border strip with the occupied Golan Heights. An unprecedented wave of hundreds of airstrikes targeted military bases across the country, virtually destroying Syria’s entire defense infrastructure of the country in a matter of days. UN international patrols from the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) remain stationed along the border strip with Quneitra province and western Daraa, maintaining their positions for the time being.
North-East Syria
After seizing the city from withdrawing regime forces last week, the SDF has now withdrawn from Deir Ezzor city, prompting celebrations and demonstrations from the city’s residents. In another sign of the SDF’s deteriorating control over contested areas, demonstrations calling for the withdrawal of the Kurdish-led force from Raqqa city descended into clashes. SDF forces retreating from the city’s main square fired on protesters, killing and wounding an unknown number, according to initial reports. Activists and community members are planning further demonstrations. The day prior, authorities launched a wave of arrests; most of those detained were civil activists and/or employees in local NGOs.
