Syria’s delicate interim period is still defined by the very real threat of unrest and open hostilities in north-east Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are facing sustained challenges to their control over north-east Syria. Its fighters have already begun tactical withdrawals from communities in Deir Ezzor, which the group took from retreating regime forces in early December. Local protests in Raqqa demanding the SDF’s removal turned into violent clashes when forces opened fire on protesters, adding to the long-simmering tensions between local Arab tribes and Kurdish forces. In a sign of the unprecedented precarity the group finds itself in, the Kurdish-led Self Administration presented a roadmap designed to de-escalate hostilities in favor of negotiations with interim authorities in Damascus.
In south Syria, Israel is maintaining its unilateral occupation of territory in the border strip and Quneitra, manning checkpoints and conducting raids within urban areas to seek out former Hezbollah and Syrian army weapons stores and infrastructure in the region. Israeli airstrikes continue to pound Syria, causing huge explosions in Damascus and Tartous.
Following tense negotiations with Ahmad al-Awdeh and other representatives of south-west Syria’s armed groups, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) military forces assumed effective control of the coveted Nassib crossing linking south Syria with Jordan.
North-East Syria
Unrest is spreading across north-east Syria, where some communities are demanding the withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Long-standing tensions escalated last week when protests against the group in central Raqqa turned into clashes between residents and SDF fighters, leaving several people dead and more than 22 others injured. In response, the SDF has kept up a wave of arrests targeting alleged participants in demonstrations, with up to 70 people taken into custody so far.
After losing Manbij to advancing forces from the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) last week, the SDF withdrew from the Tishreen Dam area of the Manbij countryside over the weekend. Forces from the SNA’s Fajr al-Hurriyeh (Dawn of Freedom) operations room subsequently entered the area without clashes.
With the SDF and Kurdish-led Self Administration arguably in their most precarious position since taking over control of much of the north-east after 2018, the Self Administration presented a so-called “Syrian Dialogue Initiative” meant to chart a course out of the current situation. The 10-point document calls for (amongst other things) an emergency meeting in Damascus to discuss transition with interim authorities and to preserve the unity and sovereignty of Syrian territory—including by protecting them from attacks by Türkiye.
Damascus
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen visited Damascus over the weekend—his first trip to the Syrian capital since Bashar al-Assad’s fall—and met with HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara’a, otherwise known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. Pedersen stressed to al-Jolani that UN Resolution 2254 must form the backbone of the coming transitional process, emphasizing the need for economic renewal as another key part of transition and conflict resolution efforts moving forward. The meeting prompted optimism amongst Syrians inside the country, with many expressing hopes these measures can be implemented meaningfully on the ground.
Pedersen’s visit came on the back of an Arab Ministerial Contact Committee summit on Syria in Aqaba, Jordan, which included foreign ministers from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt as well as the Arab League’s secretary-general; foreign ministers from the US, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, France and the European Union, and ambassadors from the UK and Germany, also attended. A first step in diplomatically acknowledging the post-Assad reality in Damascus, international states tended to focus discussions on immediate concerns—including the need for a genuine, representative transition in Syria and an end to Israeli incursions into Syria.
Despite mounting international engagement with Syria, there are growing concerns about the lack of inclusivity displayed by HTS-led authorities in Damascus when it comes to governance—either by not including a broad spectrum of parties in decision-making or displaying a lack of interest in reaching compromises. Ministers from the HTS-affiliated Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), which governed Idlib until recently, are increasingly being installed in Damascus, bringing with them handfuls of senior directors from Idlib—even if they are underqualified figures with little experience.
HTS-led authorities have sought to reinstate a sense of order in and around the capital, reactivating former regime checkpoints stationed on main roads and clearing left-behind military vehicles and destroyed cars that littered the city in the wake of the former regime’s collapse. As seen in other areas of the country, volunteer teams are still cleaning streets in and around Damascus due to the shortage of sanitation workers and infrastructure, although there has been a partial return to work of garbage trucks in the capital in recent days.
Israeli Attacks & Incursions
While Israel has already occupied the demilitarized border strip between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Syrian-controlled areas of Quneitra, Israeli forces are continuing regular incursions into Quneitra province. Israeli forces have also continued its campaign of airstrikes across Syria, which have effectively wiped out Syrian army weapons stocks and capabilities. On Sunday alone, Israeli forces launched more than 50 raids across Syria—including one in Mneen, a few kilometers to the north of Damascus, that destroyed a weapons storage warehouse. Massive airstrikes in Latakia and Tartous on the same night also reportedly targeted weapons stores and air defense sites.
South-West Syria
HTS is currently working to establish its control in Daraa by placing affiliated officials and close allies in senior governorate-level and administrative civilian positions. In a significant move, HTS also took control of the Nassib-Jaber crossing linking Syria with Jordan. HTS’ consolidation in the south has been accompanied by tense negotiations between al-Jolani and Ahmad al-Awdeh, former commander of Southern Front faction Shabab al-Sunna and the 5th Corps’ 8th Brigade.
North-West Syria
Türkiye’s minister of interior announced that around 9,000 Syrian refugees travelled to north-west Syria via the Bab al-Salameh and Bab al-Hawa crossings in the past week. However, it remains unclear how many of this group were returnees planning to return permanently to Syria or, for example, others conducting scouting visits to their origin communities in the north-west. Even then, in spite of the removal of Assad and the widespread hope among Syrians who saw the former regime as an obstacle to their safe return, it is still far too premature to upturn existing policies on asylum, reception and return for Syrian refugees in neighboring countries or hosting countries in Europe.
