Efforts from interim authorities led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to patch up the Syrian state are continuing; however, new threats and potential spoilers present themselves on a seemingly weekly basis. Notwithstanding the first signs of resurgent ISIS activity outside the central Badia, interim authorities have struggled to strike a balance between accountability for regime-era crimes and settling the status of thousands of former officers, conscripts and militiamen. Making security matters more difficult is the growing wave of vigilante assassinations and attacks is targeting those accused of past violations. Many of those targeted have included low-level regime commanders as well as seemingly random young Alawi men. In addition to these killings, Syria’s interim authorities must also contend with armed groups in Syria reluctant to hand over authority—and arms. HTS is continuing to pressure Ahmad al-Awdeh and other former opposition groups in south Syria to dissolve and disarm their forces, holding high-level meetings in Daraa to garner support for the push. Talks are underway to determine the shape of security arrangements in the south moving forward.
Security Dynamics
While much remains unknown about interim authorities’ plans for justice and accountability for regime-era crimes, a wave of vigilante attacks targeting former regime personnel is on the rise across Syria. Rising numbers of individuals are being targeted through assassinations and bouts of mob violence. While some of those targeted are individuals with well-documented involvement in regime abuses against civilian populations after 2011, other incidents involved recently reconciled former regime members, low-ranking conscripts and seemingly random young men from the Alawi community. Families of many targeted individuals have vowed revenge for these attacks, raising the specter of a self-perpetuating cycle of violence that could undermine the tentative control of HTS-led authorities in some areas.
HTS-led security forces in Rural Damascus foiled an ISIS plot to bomb the Sayeda Zeinab Shrine near Damascus, a major pilgrimage destination and holy site for Shia Muslims. The operation led to the arrest of several ISIS cell members. The incident serves as a reminder that extremism continues to pose a real threat to post-Assad Syria.
South Syria
HTS has increasingly sought to leverage its power and military reach across Daraa province and the wider south of Syria, raising tensions with Ahmad al-Awdeh. Intensive negotiations at the Daraa Governorate building have sought the dissolution of both the 5th Corps and Ahmad al-Awdeh’s groups (which once formed the 8th Brigade of the 5th Corps) as well as other former opposition groups from Daraa city and Al-Tafas. While HTS is seeking the integration of all former opposition groups under a new post-Assad Ministry of Defense, pressure is mounting on al-Awdeh, who has shown resistance to the dissolution under current conditions. Talks are underway with al-Awdeh’s forces and other factions to determine the shape of security arrangements in the south moving forward.
As part of broader efforts to expand security reach into the south, HTS-led authorities deployed forces to the towns of Jadal, Mseika, Al-Mismiyeh and Sour in Al-Lajat following negotiations with local elders. Residents have subsequently been instructed to surrender their weapons to HTS—a major challenge, given the region’s historic role as a major hub for arms trafficking in south-west Syria. Militant factions in Al-Lajat have refused to disarm despite the establishment of four disarmament centers run by interim authorities.
North-west Syria
Idlib’s security landscape has significantly shifted following the regime’s collapse. Much of the military presence has been redeployed to key areas in Aleppo, Homs, Damascus, Latakia and Tartous, with the National Liberation Front (NLF) largely in charge of controlling Idlib for the time being. The NLF coordinates with local security forces and depends heavily on allied factions for manpower. Many checkpoints have been dismantled, with little enforcement of arrest warrants or other kinds of inspections.
Sectarian Tensions & Religious Extremism
Despite the relatively moderate tone taken up publicly by HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara’a (otherwise known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani), several developments have sharpened fears about the encroachment of Salafi ideas into daily life and HTS officials’ tolerance for extreme religious elements within the interim administration. In one example, many residents of Al-Tal in Rural Damascus expressed dismay following the appointment of Abu Malik al-Tali as the official in charge of the city’s mosques, citing his hardline religious views and reputation for corruption. Elsewhere, in central Syria, public transport vehicles in Homs now display stickers enforcing gender-segregated seating—with men seated at the front and women at the rear of buses—drawing sharp criticism in a country with no modern history of mandated gender separation.
Foreign fighters are also raising concerns. Despite the stated goal of HTS-led authorities to dissolve all factions and roll former opposition forces into a unified military structure, thousands of foreign jihadist fighters primarily from central Asia remain in the north-west. Foreign extremists recently held a religious gathering in Latakia’s Jableh, which is home to a significant Alawi population, featuring jihadist chants, calls for strict adherence to Islamic law, and a campaign to distribute niqabs to young girls. The Military Operations Administration also organized a military parade in Jableh featuring Salafi-themed banners.
Economic Developments
Interim authorities unveiled a major overhaul of the country’s customs regime in recent days, creating for the first time a unified list of tariffs applied to imported goods at all Syrian border crossings. This has increased tariffs at the Bab al-Hawa crossing, to take one key example, by between 300% and 500%. The result has been a leap in commodity prices across the country, with average prices in Idlib and northern Aleppo market increasing by 10%.
Dozens of shops and import companies shuttered on 12th January to protest the increased customs duties and taxes, particularly in areas of north-west Syria. Protesters organized sit-ins and displayed anti-government slogans on walls, with some even calling for the overthrow of the interim government. In response to the overwhelmingly negative reception, there are reports that interim authorities plan to revise customs duties on essential goods such as heating fuel, gas, gasoline, diesel and basic food items.
Syrian ports and Damascus International Airport reopened for imports of goods and aid shipments. The first commercial ship to reach Syria since the fall of Assad, carrying 2,000 tons of natural gas, docked at the port at Baniyas on 12th January. Aircraft from Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar also continue to arrive at Damascus’ airport, bringing tons of aid supplies including flour, medicines and other emergency relief supplies.