Ongoing outbreaks of violence, aggression and violations across different areas in Syria are a reminder of the country’s precarious situation as it navigates the myriad challenges of unifying a fragmented country post-Assad. Despite a breakthrough agreement between caretaker authorities and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the announcement of a Constitutional Declaration to set the legal and political framework for the transitional period last week, reactions from key segments of Syrian society indicate a deep distrust over caretaker authorities’ commitment to a democratic transitional process and the protection of political rights for all Syrians. The rejection of the Constitutional Declaration by the pre-dominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) and senior Druze cleric Sheikh al-Hijri over its authoritarian nature risk unravelling efforts to integrate these groups under the caretaker government’s authority as the discrepancy between caretaker President Ahmad al-Shara’a’s commitments and actions becomes increasingly stark. At the same time, fears and sensitivities around exclusion and sectarianism have burst to the foreground following the mass violence perpetrated mainly against Alawi civilians during operations by caretaker security forces in Syria’s coastal areas earlier this month. Syria’s prospects for long-term stability will likely continue to remain tenuous in coming months as social fragmentation, distrust, ongoing violence and caretaker authorities’ seemingly authoritarian tendencies undermine transitional efforts.
Security Dynamics
Despite announcing the formal cessation of large-scale military operations against regime remnants on Syria’s coast, small but targeted General Security raids continued to pursue suspected regime remnants in Latakia and Tartous. Isolated attacks by remnant regime groups against security forces also persisted, though the general security situation has calmed, and pace of attacks slowed, since operations ended. At the same time, accounts continue to emerge of widespread sectarian attacks, execution-style killings and other violations against civilians by groups nominally affiliated with General Security and the Military Operations Administration during anti-regime operations since early March. Victims’ testimonies and evidence of abuse have dogged caretaker officials both domestically and internationally, while General Security is also facing growing condemnation over its decision to deny access to foreign journalists and media agencies to coastal cities and villages. Regional access has only been granted to pro-government outlets, and solely to specific areas under tight supervision, effectively preventing independent verification of violations.
Along the Syria-Lebanon border, the area of Hawik witnessed clashes for the second time in recent months between Syrian security forces and Hezbollah-affiliated groups on the Lebanese side of the border. Following meetings between Lebanese army commanders and the Syrian Ministry of Defense, a mutual agreement was reached to implement security measures and to enable the return of civilians who had fled the fighting and ensure a return to stability. Lebanese army officials returned the bodies of Syrian soldiers executed by Hezbollah-linked operatives as both sides pledged to prevent future violations by any armed groups. However, inconsistent military command control amongst Syrian forces and the prevalence of Hezbollah-affiliated elements nearby means that further clashes are likely moving forward.
Despite the recent breakthrough agreement with caretaker authorities paving the way towards full political and security integration into the Syrian state, the SDF continued independent operations targeting ISIS cells in the north-east, conducting raids and arrests of suspected extremists around the areas of Kudeiran and Al-Salhabiyeh in western Raqqa, with backing from US-led International Coalition forces.
Caretaker Governance
The Constitutional Declaration put forward by the official drafting committee last week, which maps out Syria’s post-Assad constitutional principles, continues to raise alarm bells among many observers for its strong emphasis on executive power and lack of checks and balances on the president. According to the declaration, the president would retain the power to appoint a third of the legislative branch, while parliament would lack any mechanism for impeaching or holding the executive to account. While a notable aspect of the document is the inclusion of provisions on transitional justice and the protection of women’s rights, crucial questions remain about implementation and specifics. Critics have raised concerns that the declaration, which sought no form of public approval or ratification, may function as an interim constitution due to its detailed nature and the transition’s lengthy timeframe of five years, rather than a broad, guiding document for the transitional period.
Several key segments of Syrian society have voiced their rejection of the Constitutional Declaration. Despite having reached a landmark deal for the SDF’s integration into the new Ministry of Defense a few days earlier, the Kurdish-led SDC, the governance arm of the SDF, rejected the declaration a day after its announcement over concerns that it “reproduces authoritarianism in a new form” and “obstructs the path of democratic transition.” They demanded that the declaration be rewritten to ensure the fair distribution of power, the rights of all Syrian communities and allow for decentralized governance. Notably, senior Druze cleric Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri also publicly rejected the document in its current form, calling for a complete revision to ensure a participatory democratic system that respects Syria’s historical and cultural identity. His statement emphasized the need for a clear separation of powers, expanded local governance authority and checks on the power of the president.
Dynamics with the Self Administration
Following a breakthrough agreement between caretaker authorities and SDF leader Mazloum Abdi earlier in March, both sides have taken tentative early steps towards the unification of political and security structures in north-east Syria. The most concrete step so far has been the initiation of joint security patrols across the north-east, while talks are underway to form a joint transitional joint administrative council in Hasakeh to manage civic affairs, infrastructure and local governance—although the Arab officials involved are mainly local tribal members. However, protests have erupted in parts of Ain al-Arab/Kobane and Amouda after some Kurdish civilians denounced the agreement and accused the new governance structure of threatening Kurdish identity and hard-won autonomy achieved during the past decade. In reaction to the Constitutional Declaration, a public protest also took place in Al-Darbasiyeh condemning its neglect of Kurdish rights.
Despite the promise of the new agreement and signs of cautious support from Ankara, Turkish-backed forces have continued to shell SDF positions in eastern Aleppo, striking a fuel station in the town of Sarrin and positions near the Tishreen Dam in eastern Aleppo and targeting a string of villages in Hasakeh. Turkish airstrikes also continued to strike SDF positions, continuing military pressure on the group even as integration efforts have progressed with authorities in Damascus.
Israeli Attacks & Incursions in South Syria
Israeli warplanes targeted multiple military sites in southern Syria with airstrikes, resulting in the deaths of three civilians and injuring at least 19 others on 17th March. The following day, Israeli warplanes conducted additional strikes on a former regime military facility in Shinshar and a missile battalion in Jdeidet al-Sharqiyeh, both located in Homs province. On the ground, hundreds of Israeli soldiers continue to conduct incursions into Quneitra and south-west Daraa province on an almost daily basis, launching patrols, raiding farms and blocking routes used by local residents.
