The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February has already sent catalytic shockwaves throughout the region, with states now facing Iranian retaliation. Presently, Syria’s interim authorities are intent on preventing the country from getting dragged into a conflict with Israel and as such, are taking precautionary steps in the south, as well as securing Syria’s borders with Lebanon and Iraq. Internal Security forces have established an approximately seven-kilometer security perimeter around Quneitra’s border strip to restrict the flow of non-locals in and out of Quneitra province and to prevent any activity that could provoke Israel. Although the expanding conflict has generated concern about potential Israeli encroachment deeper into Syrian territory, immediate public anxieties are focused primarily on rising fuel prices and the risk of further economic deterioration in already fragile communities.
Israeli Actions
Within hours of the first US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran on 28th February, Iranian UAVs deployed to retaliate against Israel crossed through Syrian airspace but were intercepted. Since the outbreak of hostilities, Israeli forces have maintained overwhelming aerial dominance over southern Syria. At least 20 Iranian UAVs crashed or were shot down by Israeli air defenses over the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra since last week. Meanwhile, Israeli helicopters and drones intensified activities in Syrian airspace.
Debris has fallen across multiple locations in Daraa, including Izra’a, Khirbet Ghazaleh, Al-Musayfirah, Nawa, Um al-Mayathin and near Yarmouk University along the Damascus-Daraa highway, as well as in the vicinity of Ba’ath City in Quneitra. The pattern underscores Israel’s ongoing freedom of action and dominance of airspace over south Syria.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces have continued periodic, limited-depth incursions across south-west Daraa and central and northern areas of Quneitra, although these operations do not appear directly tied to the expanding confrontation with Iran.
Syrian Security Measures
Quneitra province has been placed under heightened security through the establishment of a two-tiered security cordon, established by Internal Security, reaching approximately seven kilometers into Syria from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and border strip. The first line of Internal Security checkpoints stretches through western Daraa province to prevent anyone from outside of Quneitra from accessing the province, while the second line of checkpoints stretches within Quneitra province to prevent anyone from outside of the border strip from accessing these towns. Beyond ground security measures, Syria has no means of protecting itself from Iranian or Israeli aerial activities. Immediately following the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli airstrikes destroyed Syria’s aerial defense capabilities.
Lebanese Hezbollah shelled the Syrian border town of Serghaya early Tuesday morning, hitting Syrian army positions. Hezbollah, which has since added further reinforcements along the Syrian-Lebanese border, claims it was responding to an Israeli attack on the Beqaa Valley from Serghaya. Damascus, keen to keep Syria from being pulled into the regional conflict, is unlikely to escalate for the time being.
Schools and government institutions have remained closed in Daraa and Quneitra, with similar closures observed in Suwayda. Yarmouk University suspended operations after missile and UAV impacts were recorded close to the Damascus-Daraa highway.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
Across the region, UNHCR reports, more than 330,000 people have been forcibly displaced from their homes; among them are around 70,700 Syrians who have crossed from Lebanon into Syria. These come amid intensive Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon following Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel. ETANA estimates that, as of 2nd March, approximately 2,500 Syrian nationals returned to Daraa from different areas of Lebanon. In subsequent days—coinciding with expanded Israeli air and ground operations inside Lebanon—an estimated 10,000 additional Daraa residents departed Lebanon and returned to Syria.
Amid rising regional casualties, between four to five Syrians are alleged to have been killed by a downed Iranian rocket in Suwayda city on 28th February, but ETANA could not independently verify these reports. Falling debris has so far caused limited damage in south Syria, but has raised anxiety among many in the area, as it lies in the flight path of many of the Iranian UAVs targeting Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
