For the first time in eight years, opposition factions are in control of Aleppo city. The swift and decisive advances by opposition forces in north-west Syria on 27th November were primarily driven by the unexpected collapse of regime defenses, which crumbled under the strain of poor morale, low wages and the inexperience of newly conscripted recruits. While the operation was initially spearheaded by hardline Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the offensive has been characterized by a high degree of cooperation between secular opposition factions and HTS. All participants have agreed to fight under the singular banner of the Syrian revolution.
Amid a series of unexpected battlefield successes, opposition forces have experienced a significant transformation, driven by a surge of former rebel fighters rejoining the campaign. Initially, the offensive was launched with an estimated 10,000-15,000 fighters, of whom 65% were aligned with HTS and 35% with various other factions. However, this composition has shifted dramatically, with HTS now accounting for just over one-third of the expanded opposition force.
Compounding the regime’s vulnerability was the lack of timely support from the Russian Air Force, leaving frontline units overwhelmed. A notable exception was in Saraqeb, where elite Republican Guard units, bolstered by Hezbollah and Iranian forces, mounted a strong resistance before ultimately falling to the opposition’s coordinated assault. The trajectory of the conflict in the coming days will hinge on the response of pro-regime forces to the opposition’s rapid advances. A critical variable remains the potential for an intensified Russian aerial campaign, akin to the devastating bombardments that decimated large sections of Aleppo in 2015. While Russian intervention has thus far been limited, any Russian escalation—combined with the arrival of Iranian-backed militias on the ground—could significantly alter the balance of power on the battlefield.
North-West Operation
In the early hours of 27th November, a coalition of opposition forces launched a widespread anti-regime offensive against pro-regime forces codenamed “Operation Deterring Aggression.” An offensive force, comprising roughly 15,000 fighters, launched operations across front-line positions in the western Aleppo countryside.
Regime forces stationed in the area called for reinforcements and Russian air support, both of which failed to arrive at the time of the initial attack. Regime troops quickly fell back, allowing opposition forces to rapidly overrun pro-regime positions around Sheikh Aqil, forcing front-line regime troops into a hasty retreat and opening a largely unguarded path for opposition advances deeper into western Aleppo.
Following the success of operations in western Aleppo, oppositions forces quickly opened a second front along the Atareb axis in southern Idlib. Despite these battlefield advances, opposition forces faced fiercer resistance there, with the presence of more disciplined and elite Republican Guard troops in the area—as well as Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias—stalling their progress. The intense clashes resulted in hours of prolonged fighting and significantly higher numbers of casualties, although opposition forces had taken full control of the city and its surrounding area by the end of the day. By 30th November, opposition forces continued their rapid advances into the outskirts of Aleppo city before establishing a significant foothold inside the city.
“Your life matters more.” Rebel drones have dropped leaflets over regime controlled areas, urging regime soldiers to flee and defect. pic.twitter.com/LIKMqa1vx1
— Hussam Hammoud | حسام (@HussamHamoud) November 28, 2024
Combatants & Tactics
The operation was initially spearheaded in large part by HTS. However, the composition of the advancing force comprised a range of opposition groups with both secular and Islamist ideologies, and has rapidly broadened as former opposition fighters unaffiliated with any groups in north-west Syria have joined the growing rebel front. While the initial force of roughly 15,000 fighters that launched the campaign was composed of 65% HTS fighters and 35% fighters from other groups, these numbers have surged with new recruits and late-arriving factions, hastened by battlefield successes. At present, it is estimated that the proportions have reversed, with 35% of fighters hailing from HTS and 65% from other groups, mainly Turkish-backed factions.
Conditions in and Around Aleppo
After initially failing to provide backup to beleaguered front-line troops, Russian forces have begun to ramp-up retaliatory airstrikes across opposition-controlled territory in the past 24 hours. However, most of the strikes have targeted civilian sites rather than front-line military positions. One strike (on 1st December) targeted the University Hospital in Aleppo, killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Other strikes bombed the neighborhoods of Al-Qusour, Al-Khamara, and Al-Shamali in Idlib, resulting in nine civilian deaths, including three children and one woman, and injuring 59 others (among them 21 children and 19 women). These targets clearly underscore the punitive nature of these airstrikes, intended to send a message to civilians and punish perceived support for opposition advances.
Russian warplanes bomb the university hospital in Aleppo, Syria. pic.twitter.com/fv0PPE2WbG
— Samer Daboul (@samerdaboul6) December 1, 2024
On 1st December, opposition groups ordered a lockdown for residents of Aleppo city while they conducted combing operations across the city to search for cells of shabiha (pro-regime gangs and paramilitary groups) and to consolidate security control over recently captured territory.
Public sentiment in Aleppo reflects a mix of astonishment at the rapid collapse of regime defenses and relief over the disappearance of the regime’s mukhabarat (intelligence services). While skepticism toward HTS and other Islamist factions persists among residents, the swift departure of regime authorities has been largely welcomed, with many cheering the end of oppressive rule.
As of 1st December, there had been no reports of widespread looting in Aleppo. Opposition forces have been conducting patrols across the city and the security situation for the moment appears to be stable. The stretch of the city between the Al-Muhafazah district and New Aleppo fell rapidly to opposition forces, resulting in very limited fighting in the streets and a marked degree of continuity in daily life for many residents. Internet service has remained largely available throughout the operation and electricity availability has increased to six hours per day—more than at any time in the past four years.
