Despite an increasingly violent response from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) toward ongoing public demonstrations, the movement against the group is expanding. Protests are now coalescing into a major threat to HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani and his inner circle. HTS’ rivals to the east, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), have begun to strenghten front-line positions to block HTS’ military access points. Nearby areas controlled by the SNA have seen an increased military police presence along roads linking HTS and SNA-held regions.
HTS-Related Developments
Across the north-west, angry displays of defiance against the armed group have continued to spill into the streets—along with increasingly direct calls for the removal of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and the disbanding of HTS’ General Security branch. Protests on 31st May were notable for their geographical reach—across much of the HTS-held north-west—and the openness with which protesters demanded systemic changes. While efforts to improve the dire economic situation may assuage some public anger, this would simultaneously imperil HTS’ model of corrupt patronage.
For months, HTS leaders have attempted to corral or intimidate civic leaders into reining in demonstrators. This has gradually given way to more overt repression and violence by HTS. In the provincial Idlib cities of Binnish and Jisr al-Shughour, for example, security forces resorted to beating protesters with batons, deploying tear gas, ramming demonstrators with armored vehicles, and using live ammunition to disperse crowds. Even so, protests have continued to spread. As such, the ongoing popular movement, originally sparked back in February 2024 following revelations of torture and extrajudicial killings by al-Jolani’s security forces, represents the most significant-ever challenge to the HTS leader’s authority in north-west Syria.
Efforts by HTS to legitimize arrests through “show” warrants issued by the attorney general of the HTS-affiliated Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) have been met with widespread public derision. This suggests that the civilian population increasingly views the HTS leadership’s actions and proclamations skeptically.
Russian & Regime Activity
Regime forces and affiliated militias have continued regular barrages of machine-gun fire as well as guided missile and artillery strikes against opposition-held areas in recent weeks, targeting a range of civilian sites across southern Idlib, western Hama, northern Latakia and western Aleppo provinces. Together, these attacks killed a total of six people, most of them children, and seriously wounded dozens of others.
In line with the larger trend of recent months, strikes utilizing Iranian-designed suicide drones against opposition areas have become a central component of the regime’s military strategy in the north-west. In total, seven individuals were killed by these attacks, four of them members of armed groups and three others who were civilians. The perception of suicide drone attacks as seemingly random has noticeably impacted daily life for civilians in north-west Syria, giving rise to a sense of increased fear and uncertainty.
Turkish/SDF conflict
The long-simmering conflict between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed SNA has continued to result in casualties and material damage on both sides. On several occasions last month, the SDF launched artillery strikes against positions held by the SNA, striking both military and civilian targets.
