While on-the-ground security dynamics remain fractious and unpredictable, caretaker authorities in Damascus managed to yield tentative concessions from armed groups around the country (with the exception of Suwayda). The formation of a Southern Division and promising statements from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) point to a desire on both sides for temporary fixes vis-à-vis the caretaker Ministry of Defense: so far, non-HTS armed groups seem to want to participate with the ministry but without disarming or ceding organizational structures and geographical zones of influence. In effect, Southern Division brigades will perpetuate the divisions that have defined the south for years—between eastern and western Daraa, Daraa and Suwayda, and competing factions on the ground—and a similar arrangement could develop in the north-east if talks continue to progress. Meanwhile, the launch of a series of top-down meetings by the National Dialogue Conference’s preparatory committee have already cast considerable doubt on the process’ potential for meaningful outcomes, causing concern over the possibility of a genuine transitional process needed for long-term stability.
Caretaker Governance
Last week, southern faction leaders and the caretaker Ministry of Defense agreed to the formation of a so-called Southern Division within the new Syrian army. In order to “integrate” into the new Ministry of Defense, caretaker representatives asked the factions to hand over information on their numbers of fighters, weapons in their possession and military points. Since the meeting, several developments indicate that the formation of the division is underway, and the 5th Division’s headquarters in eastern Daraa’s Izra’a has been selected as the command headquarters for the new division. In theory, the latest steps are a modest sign of progress: the Defense Ministry has stepped-down demands for southern factions to disarm altogether; in turn, factions have demonstrated some willingness to comply with ministry demands—for example, Ahmad al-Awdeh’s groups are reportedly now compiling a list of names of fighters from their ranks. However, the Southern Division appears to be a temporary fix, meant to manage tensions between caretaker authorities and southern factions without formally integrating them into a national institution. In its current form, the Southern Division will still reflect the regional and factional divisions that have defined the south for years, with brigades representing Daraa, eastern Daraa, western Daraa and another (still to be negotiated) for Suwayda.
SDF chief Mazloum Abidi expressed a willingness to integrate into the Syrian army and remove all foreign fighters from Syrian territory. The statement is a significant development in itself, likely indicating some positive progress made in negotiations with caretaker authorities in recent weeks. At the same time, the SDF will be unlikely to agree to fully disarm and integrate into the Ministry of Defense for the foreseeable future. Similar to talks over the Southern Division, it appears that non-HTS coalitions and factions are looking to de-escalate tensions without irrevocably disarming or subsuming into institutions led by caretaker authorities.
The seven-member preparatory committee for the forthcoming, but as-yet-undated, National Dialogue Conference hosted its first sessions in Homs, Latakia, Hama and Idlib, and Daraa and Suwayda. Sessions focused on institution-building, constitutional reform and transitional justice. However, initial meetings cast considerable doubt on the process’ potential for meaningful outcomes based on the committee’s composition, superficial engagement with attendees and the format of the meetings themselves. The Self-Administration criticized recent announcements about the National Dialogue Conference, stating that “the participation of all parties…is a fundamental principle for the success of the conference.” However, preparatory committee member Huda al-Atassi said last week the conference will represent everyone in Syria—except for the Kurdish-led administration in the north-east and former regime elements.
Caretaker President Ahmad al-Shara’a visited Idlib city and Afrin before travelling to Latakia and Tartous later in the week. Frequent talking-points from al-Shara’a focused on the National Dialogue Conference, accountability and transitional justice; the locations of his visits were undoubtedly significant because of their association with Syria’s ethnic (Kurdish) and sectarian (Alawi) minorities. While in Afrin, al-Shara’a met with local Kurdish representatives who shared grievances; al-Shara’a made promises to replace factions in the city with official security forces and to rein-in abuses against local Kurds.
Security Dynamics
Caretaker security forces face compounding threats in their attempt to stabilize the country, including violent regime remnants, sectarian violence and kidnappings. In the north-east, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) face targeted attacks from ISIS cells and continued hostilities with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).
State-run news agency SANA announced that caretaker security forces captured a prominent ISIS commander, Abu al-Harith al-Iraqi, without providing further details about the operation. ISIS operatives under al-Iraqi were reportedly responsible for planning the attack targeting the Sayeda Zeinab Shrine that was thwarted last month. HTS blames al-Iraqi for the assassination of former senior HTS commander Abu Maria al-Qahtani, who was killed in an explosion in northern Idlib’s Sarmada in April last year. However, the incident was widely seen at the time as an “inside job” by the HTS leadership to strong-arm HTS commanders and factions away from potential dissent. Later in the week, police in eastern Daraa’s Al-Naima raided the homes of ISIS suspects, arresting 10 people.
Security forces are still rooting out regime remnants across the country, who have been frequently targeting General Security members and checkpoints. ETANA recorded attacks by pro-regime groups on General Security members in Rural Damascus, eastern Daraa and western Homs. Clashes also broke out in Hama and Jableh, close to the Hmeimim base. Security forces have conducted multiple operations in former regime areas of Deir Ezzor. General Security and Military Operations Administration units conducted raids in Deir Ezzor city’s Harabesh neighborhood, arresting National Defense Forces (NDF) militia members Khader al-Sinjar, Al-Jafra sector commander Rashid al-Faraj and Hassan al-Ghadban, who is accused of committing war crimes in Deir Ezzor. Additionally, three alleged perpetrators of the 2013 Tadamon Massacre were arrested by security forces in south Damascus, including former Military Intelligence operative Munzher al-Jaza’iri.
Provinces across Syria continued to see a rise in kidnappings. In one case, two people travelling between Damascus and Hama went missing in mid-February; their relatives reported the case to police in Damascus, prompting a search operation by authorities in the two cities. Homs has become a hotspot for kidnappings: the Civil Peace Group documented 64 kidnapping cases since the fall of the regime—19 victims were later discovered executed, just three resulted in ransom demands. Mawali tribesmen in rural Salamiyeh’s Tal Dara kidnapped and executed three men from the coast, claiming they belonged to the former regime, in retribution for the killing of a Mawali man who was smuggling weapons through rural Homs recently.
Incidents of sectarian violence, primarily targeting Shia and Alawi communities, are also prevalent. Residents found the body of a young Shia agricultural worker near the western Homs village of Al-Shlouh. In northern Homs’ Tasnin, a Shia man was killed by armed men believed to be from the Military Operations Administration. An elderly Shia man was arrested by the Military Operations Administration on charges of alleged links to Lebanese Hezbollah; his body later turned up in the Salamiyeh National Hospital. An Alawi man was found dead in Homs’ Karam al-Louz Hospital after he was kidnapped days ago from a garage by unknown armed men.
In the north-east, ISIS fighters detonated an IED that destroyed an SDF patrol vehicle as it passed through the eastern Deir Ezzor town of Abu al-Hassan, injuring several patrol members inside. The following day, ISIS fighters attacked an SDF headquarters in eastern Deir Ezzor’s Al-Baghouz, leading to violent clashes between the two sides.
Israeli Attacks & Incursions in South Syria
Israeli forces continued to conduct incursions into and beyond the 1974 demilitarized border strip between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Quneitra proper. Israeli attempts to appeal to hearts and minds in Quneitra have been repeatedly rebuffed, taking place at the same time as raids, shootings and other violations. These include the recent detention of an emergency medical services team from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) near northern/central Quneitra’s Rasm al-Shara’a. A SARC statement said the team was “handcuffed, blindfolded and detained for three hours before being released without explanation” by Israeli forces.
Türkiye/SNA & SDF Hostilities in Aleppo & North-East Syria
Despite heavy clashes over the course of several weeks now, there has been no change to the local conflict map around the Tishreen Dam. Frontlines between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) witnessed ongoing, fierce clashes across the two sides of the Euphrates River near the Tishreen Dam and Qere Qozak Bridge. After an infiltration attempt by SDF units near the village of Al-Saideen, intense clashes broke out and prompted Turkish artillery barrages around the dam and bridge areas. SDF forces bombarded SNA positions around the same area and the Al-Hawhshariyeh base, sustaining several injuries among SNA fighters. Two SDF members were killed by SNA shelling near the Tishreen Dam the following day. Turkish airstrikes targeted SDF positions and vehicles across Aleppo province and areas of north-east Syria, while a Turkish drone targeted an SDF truck near Al-Mahmoudli in western Raqqa, killing one member.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
The Syrian Oil Transport Company in Baniyas laid off 280 employees and granted paid leave to 900 others without providing explanation, with some alleging the firings were motivated by sectarianism rather than a desire to reform public sector institutions. Authorities in Daraa are also conducting a census of all public sector employees in Daraa to verify the actual number of active employees and remove some workers. Coastal provinces saw multiple protests by public sector workers demonstrating against dismissals: in Latakia, dozens protested outside the Workers’ Union building; another protest gathered outside the Latakia Port and Customs Company; and dozens of Syrian Oil Transport Company workers protested in Baniyas. In Damascus, male and female activists and trade unionists protested against lay-offs and privatization plans.
